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作者：Eliaz, Kfir; Spiegler, Ran
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; Utah System of Higher Education; University of Utah; University of London; University College London
摘要：We formalize the argument that political disagreements can be traced to a clash of narratives. Drawing on the Bayesian Networks literature, we represent a narrative by a causal model that maps actions into consequences, weaving a selection of other random variables into the story. Narratives generate beliefs by interpreting long-run correlations between these variables. An equilibrium is defined as a probability distribution over narrative-policy pairs that maximize a representative agent's an...
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作者：De Chaisemartin, Clement; D'Haultfoeuille, Xavier
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; Institut Polytechnique de Paris; ENSAE Paris
摘要：Linear regressions with period and group fixed effects are widely used to estimate treatment effects. We show that they estimate weighted sums of the average treatment effects (ATE) in each group and period, with weights that may be negative. Due to the negative weights, the linear regression coefficient may for instance be negative while all the ATEs are positive. We propose another estimator that solves this issue. In the two applications we revisit, it is significantly different from the li...
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作者：Sonmez, Tayfun; Unver, M. Utku; Yenmez, M. Bumin
作者单位：Boston College; Deakin University
摘要：Over the last 15 years, kidney exchange has become a mainstream paradigm to increase transplants. However, compatible pairs do not participate, and full benefits from exchange can be realized only if they do. We propose incentivizing compatible pairs to participate in exchange by insuring their patients against future renal failure via increased priority in deceased-donor queue. We analyze equity and welfare benefits of this scheme through a new dynamic continuum model. We calibrate the model ...
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作者：Ganong, Peter; Noel, Pascal
摘要：We exploit variation in mortgage modifications to disentangle the impact of reducing long-term obligations with no change in short-term payments (wealth), and reducing short-term payments with no change in long-term obligations (liquidity). Using regression discontinuity and difference-in-differences research designs with, administrative data measuring default and consumption, we find that principal reductions that increase wealth without affecting liquidity have no effect, white maturity exte...
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作者：Bach, Laurent; Calvet, Laurent E.; Sodini, Paolo
作者单位：ESSEC Business School; Universite Catholique de Lille; EDHEC Business School; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：We investigate wealth returns on an administrative panel containing the disaggregated balance sheets of Swedish residents. The expected return on household net wealth is strongly persistent, determined primarily by systematic risk, and increasing in net worth, exceeding the risk-free rate by the size of the equity premium for households in the top 0.01 percent. Idiosyncratic risk is transitory but generates substantial long-term dispersion in returns in top brackets. Systematic and idiosyncrat...
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作者：Duflo, Esther
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
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作者：Dobbie, Will; Song, Jae
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the drivers of financial distress using a large-scale field experiment that offered randomly selected borrowers a combination of (i) immediate payment reductions to target short-run liquidity constraints and (ii) delayed interest write-downs to target long-run debt constraints. We identify the separate effects of the payment reductions and interest write-downs using both the experiment and cross-sectional variation in treatment intensity. We find that the interest write-downs signific...
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作者：Bernhardt, Dan; Buisseret, Peter; Hidir, Sinem
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of Warwick; University of Chicago; University of Warwick
摘要：We study -multi-district legislative elections between two office-seeking parties when one party has an initial valence advantage that may shift and even reverse during the campaign; and, each party cares not only about winning a majority, but also about its share of seats. When the initial imbalance favoring one party is small, each party targets the median voter. For moderate imbalances, the advantaged party maintains the centre-ground, but the disadvantaged party retreats to target its core...
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作者：Huo, Zhen; Pedroni, Marcelo
作者单位：Yale University; University of Amsterdam
摘要：We show that the equilibrium policy rule in beauty contest models is equivalent to that of a single agent's forecast of the economic fundamental. This forecast is conditional on a modified information process, which simply discounts the precision of idiosyncratic shocks by the degree of strategic complementarity. The result holds for any linear Gaussian signal process (static or persistent, stationary or nonstationary, exogenous or endogenous), and also extends to network games. Theoretically,...
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作者：Blakeslee, David; Fishman, Ram; Srinivasan, Veena
作者单位：Tel Aviv University
摘要：Worsening environmental conditions threaten to undermine progress in reducing rural poverty. Little is known, however, about the prospects for farmer adaptations to mitigate this threat, in particular through opportunities for income diversification presented by recent non-agricultural growth. We study the effects of increasing water scarcity in India using quasi-random, geologically determined differences in access to groundwater. The drying up of wells results in a precipitous and persistent...
