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作者：Lunsford, Kurt G.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：I show that the nature of the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC's) forward guidance language shapes the private sector's responses to monetary policy statements. From February 2000 to June 2003, the FOMC only gave forward guidance about economic outlook risks, and a decrease in the expected federal funds rate path caused stock prices to fall, GDP growth forecasts to fall, and the unemployment rate to rise. From August 2003 to May 2006, the FOMC added forward guidance about policy inclinati...
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作者：Abdulkadiroglu, Atila; Pathak, Parag A.; Schellenberg, Jonathan; Walters, Christopher R.
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：School choice may lead to improvements in school productivity if parents' choices reward effective schools and punish ineffective ones. This mechanism requires parents to choose schools based on causal effectiveness rather than peer characteristics. We study relationships among parent preferences, peer quality, and causal effects on outcomes for applicants to New York city's centralized high school assignment mechanism. We use applicants' rank-ordered choice lists to measure preferences and to...
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作者：Mailath, George J.; Samuelson, Larry
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; Australian National University; Yale University
摘要：People reason about uncertainty with deliberately incomplete models. How do people hampered by different, incomplete views of the world learn from each other? We introduce a model of model-based inference. Model-based reasoners partition an otherwise hopelessly complex state space into a manageable model. Unless the differences in agents' models are trivial, interactions will often not lead agents to have common beliefs or beliefs near the correct-model belief If the agents' models have enough...
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作者：Epper, Thomas; Fehr, Ernst; Fehr-Duda, Helga; Kreiner, Claus Thustrup; Lassen, David Dreyer; Leth-Petersen, Soren; Rasmussen, Gregers Nytoft
作者单位：University of St Gallen; University of Zurich; University of Zurich; University of Zurich; University of Copenhagen
摘要：This paper documents a large association between individuals' time discounting in incentivized experiments and their positions in the real-life wealth distribution derived from Danish high-quality administrative data for a large sample of middle-aged individuals. The association is stable over time, exists through the wealth distribution and remains large after controlling for education, income profile, school grades, initial wealth, parental wealth, credit constraints, demographics, risk pref...
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作者：Calvano, Emilio; Calzolari, Giacomo; Denicolo, Vincenzo; Pastorello, Sergio
作者单位：University of Bologna; University of Bologna; University of Bologna; European University Institute; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Bologna
摘要：Increasingly, algorithms are supplanting human decision-makers in pricing goods and services. To analyze the possible consequences, we study experimentally the behavior of algorithms powered by Artificial Intelligence (Q-learning) in a workhorse oligopoly model of repeated price competition. We find that the algorithms consistently learn to charge supracompetitive prices, without communicating with. one another. The high prices are sustained by collusive strategies with a finite phase of punis...
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作者：Gabaix, Xavier
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper analyzes how bounded rationality affects monetary and fiscal policy via an empirically relevant enrichment of the New Keynesian model. It models agents' partial myopia toward distant atypical events using a new microfounded cognitive discounting parameter. Compared to the rational model, (i) there is no forward guidance puzzle; (ii) the Taylor principle changes: with passive monetary policy but enough myopia equilibria are determinate and economies stable; (iii) the zero lower bound...
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作者：Harari, Mariaflavia
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania
摘要：The spatial layout of cities is an important feature of urban form, highlighted by urban planners but overlooked by economists. This paper investigates the causal economic implications of city shape in India. I measure cities' geometric properties over time using satellite imagery and historical maps. I develop an instrument for urban shape based on geographic obstacles encountered by expanding cities. Compact city shape is associated with faster population growth and households display positi...
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作者：Meckel, Katherine
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Quantity vouchers are used in redistributive programs to shield participants from price variation and alter their consumption patterns. However, because participants are insensitive to prices, vendors of program goods are incentivized to price discriminate between program and non program customers. I study these trade-offs in the context of a reform to reduce price discrimination in the Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), which provides a quantity voucher for...
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作者：Piazzesi, Monika; Schneider, Martin; Stroebel, Johannes
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University
摘要：We study housing markets with multiple segments searched by heterogeneous clienteles. In the San Francisco Bay Area, search activity and inventory covary negatively across cities, but positively across market segments within cities. A quantitative search model shows how the endogenous flow of broad searchers to -high-inventory segments within their search ranges induces a positive relationship between inventory and search activity across segments with a large common clientele. The prevalence o...
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作者：Daley, Brendan; Green, Brett
作者单位：Johns Hopkins University; Johns Hopkins Medicine; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：We study a bargaining model in which a buyer makes frequent offers to a privately informed seller, while gradually learning about the seller's type from news. We show that the buyer's ability to leverage this information to extract more surplus from the seller is remarkably limited. In fact, the buyer gains nothing from the ability to negotiate a better price despite the fact that a negotiation must take place in equilibrium. During the negotiation, the buyer engages in a form of costly experi...
