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作者：Brodeur, Abel; Cook, Nikolai; Heyes, Anthony
作者单位：University of Ottawa
摘要：The credibility revolution in economics has promoted causal identification using randomized control trials (RCT), difference-in-differences (DID), instrumental variables (IV) and regression discontinuity design (RDD). Applying multiple approaches to over 21,000 hypothesis tests published in 25 leading economics journals, we find that the extent of p-hacking and publication bias varies greatly by method. IV (and to a lesser extent DID) are particularly problematic. We find no evidence that (i) ...
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作者：Aguiar, Mark; Amador, Manuel
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
摘要：We establish that creditor beliefs regarding future borrowing can be self-fulfilling, leading to multiple equilibria with markedly different debt accumulation patterns. We characterize such indeterminacy in the Eaton-Gersovitz sovereign debt model augmented with long maturity bonds. Two necessary conditions for the multiplicity are (i) the government is more impatient than foreign creditors, and (ii) there are deadweight losses from default. The multiplicity is dynamic and stems from the self-...
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作者：Attanasio, Orazio; Cattan, Sarah; Fitzsimons, Emla; Meghir, Costas; Rubio-Codina, Marta
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of London; University College London; UCL Institute of Education; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Inter-American Development Bank
摘要：We examine the channels through which a randomized early childhood intervention in Colombia led to significant gains in cognitive and socio-emotional skills among a sample of disadvantaged children aged 12 to 24 months at baseline. We estimate the determinants of parents' material and time investments in these children and evaluate the impact of the treatment on such investments. We then estimate the production functions for cognitive and socio-emotional skills. The effects of the program can ...
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作者：Bursztyn, Leonardo; Gonzalez, Alessandra L.; Yanagizawa-Drott, David
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Zurich
摘要：We show that the vast majority of young married men in Saudi Arabia privately support women working outside the home (WWOH) and substantially underestimate support by other similar men. Correcting these beliefs increases men's (costly) willingness to help their wives search for jobs. Months later, wives of men whose beliefs were corrected are more likely to have applied and interviewed for a job outside the home. In a recruitment experiment with a local company, randomly informing women about ...
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作者：Ravid, Doron
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：A seller bargains with a rationally inattentive buyer (Sims 2003) over a good of random quality. After observing quality, the seller makes a take-it-or-leave-it offer. The buyer pays attention to the seller's product and offer at a cost proportional to expected entropy reduction. Because attention is free off-path, multiple equilibria emerge, many of which are efficient. A trembling-hand-like refinement (Selten 1975) rules out efficiency, delivering complete disagreement when attention is expe...
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作者：Rudiger, Jesper; Vigier, Adrien
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; BI Norwegian Business School
摘要：We study information acquisition in dealer markets. We first identify a one-sided strategic complementarity in information acquisition: the more informed traders are, the larger market makers' gain from becoming informed. When quotes are observable, this effect in turn induces a strategic complementarity in information acquisition amongst market makers. We then derive the equilibrium pattern of information acquisition and examine the implications of our analysis for market liquidity and price ...
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作者：Gopinath, Gita; Boz, Emine; Casas, Camila; Diez, Federico J.; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Plagborg-Moller, Mikkel
作者单位：Harvard University; International Monetary Fund; Banco de la Republica Colombia; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Princeton University
摘要：We propose a dominant currency paradigm with three key features: dominant currency pricing, pricing complementarities, and imported inputs in production. We test this paradigm using a new dataset of bilateral price and volume indices for more than 2,500 country pairs that covers 91 percent of world trade, as well as detailed firm-product-country data for Colombian exports and imports. In strong support of the paradigm we find that (i) noncommodities terms-of-trade are uncorrelated with exchang...
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作者：Beaudry, Paul; Galizia, Dana; Portier, Franck
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Carleton University; University of London; University College London; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Are business cycles mainly a response to persistent exogenous shocks, or do they instead reflect a strong endogenous mechanism which produces recurrent boom-bust phenomena? In this paper we present evidence in favor of the second interpretation and we highlight the set of key elements that influence our answer. The elements that tend to favor this type of interpretation of business cycles are (i) slightly extending the frequency window one associates with business cycle phenomena, (ii) allowin...
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作者：Fang, Hanming; Gong, Qing
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; ShanghaiTech University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of North Carolina School of Medicine
摘要：Matsumoto (2020) pointed out data and coding errors in Fang and Gong (2017). We show that these errors have limited impacts: all qualitative findings remain after correcting them. Matsumoto also discussed potential service overcounting in the aggregated utilization data we used to illustrate our method, and then quantified the extent of overcounting with a sample of Medicare claims. We acknowledge the issue but discuss the noise and the bias in his quantification. Overall, our proposed method ...
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作者：Angeletos, George-Marios; Collard, Fabrice; Dellas, Harris
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of Bern
摘要：We propose a new strategy for dissecting the macroeconomic time series, provide a template for the business-cycle propagation mechanism that best describes the data, and use its properties to appraise models of both the parsimonious and the medium-scale variety. Our findings support the existence of a main business-cycle driver but rule out the following candidates for this role; technology or other shocks that map to TFP movements; news about future productivity; and inflationary demand shock...
