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作者：Mogstad, Magne; Torgovitsky, Alexander; Walters, Christopher R.
作者单位：University of Chicago; Statistics Norway; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Empirical researchers often combine multiple instrumental variables (IVs) for a single treatment using two-stage least squares (2SLS). When treatment effects are heterogeneous, a common justification for including multiple IVs is that the 2SLS estimand can be given a causal interpretation as a positively weighted average of local average treatment effects (LATEs). This justification requires the well-known monotonicity condition. However, we show that with more than one instrument, this condit...
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作者：Pennings, Steven
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：US federal transfers to individuals are large, countercyclical, vary geographically, and are often credited with helping to stabilize regional economies. This paper estimates the -short-run effects of these transfers using plausibly exogenous regional variation in temporary stimulus payments and permanent Social Security benefit increases. States that received larger transfers tended to grow faster contemporaneously, with a multiplier of around 1.5 for permanent transfers and 1/ 3 for temporar...
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作者：Kanzig, Diego R.
作者单位：University of London; London Business School
摘要：This paper studies how changes in oil supply expectations affect the oil price and the macroeconomy. Using a novel identification design, exploiting institutional features of OPEC and high-frequency data, I identify an oil supply news shock. These shocks have statistically and economically significant effects. Negative news leads to an immediate increase in oil prices, a gradual fall in oil production, and an increase in inventories. This has consequences for the US economy: activity falls, pr...
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作者：Mueller, Andreas, I; Spinnewijn, Johannes; Topa, Giorgio
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This paper uses job seekers' elicited beliefs about job finding 10 disentangle the sources of the decline in job finding rates by duration of unemployment. We document that beliefs have strong predictive power for job finding, but are not revised downward when remaining unemployed and are subject to optimistic bias, especially for the long-term unemployed. Leveraging the predictive power of beliefs, we find substantial heterogeneity in job finding with the resulting dynamic selection explainin...
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作者：Kostol, Andreas R.; Myhre, Andreas S.
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; Statistics Norway; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Despite the implications for policy, empirical evidence on the relative importance of factors that shape labor supply responses is missing. This paper helps fill this gap and quantifies the role of information frictions versus other frictions by combining notches in the Norwegian welfare system and quasi-experimental variation in access to information about the slope and location of kinks. While we estimate a frictionless elasticity of 0.3, overall frictions attenuate this elasticity by about ...
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作者：Gottlieb, Daniel; Smetters, Kent
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：Most individual life insurance policies lapse, with lapsers cross-subsidizing non-lapsers. We show that policies and lapse patterns predicted by standard rational expectations models are the opposite of those observed empirically. We propose two behavioral models consistent with the evidence: (i) consumers forget to pay premiums and (ii) consumers understate future liquidity needs. We conduct two surveys with a large insurer. New buyers believe that their own lapse probabilities are small comp...
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作者：Chen, Daniel; Duffie, Darrell
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：We model a simple market setting in which fragmentation of trade of the same asset across multiple exchanges improves allocative efficiency. Fragmentation reduces the inhibiting effect of price-impact avoidance on order submission. Although fragmentation reduces market depth on each exchange, it also isolates cross-exchange price impacts, leading to more aggressive overall order submission and better rebalancing of unwanted positions across traders. Fragmentation also has implications for the ...
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作者：Milgrom, Paul
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University
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作者：Cicala, Steve
作者单位：Tufts University
摘要：The average effect of deregulatory policies on fuel prices at coal-fired power plants is strongly influenced by plants that were initially paying the highest prices for fuel. Primary sources document that these plants were locked into long-term, high-cost fuel contracts, and only secured market rates post-deregulation. While these plants' fuel costs were unusual, their response to deregulation was not: both coal- and gas-fired plants reduce fuel prices one-for-one with the amount they were ini...
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作者：Casey, Katherine; Kamara, Abou Bakarr; Meriggi, Niccolo F.
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Wageningen University & Research
摘要：Are ordinary citizens or political party leaders better positioned to select candidates? While the American primary system lets citizens choose, most democracies rely instead on party officials to appoint or nominate candidates. The consequences of these distinct design choices are unclear: while officials are often better informed about candidate qualifications, they may value traits, like party loyalty or willingness to pay for the nomination, at odds with identifying the best performer. We ...
