Cross-Region Transfer Multipliers in a Monetary Union: Evidence from Social Security and Stimulus Payments

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pennings, Steven
• 署名单位: The World Bank
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0002-8282
• DOI: 10.1257/aer.20190240
• 发表日期: 2021
• 页码: 1689-1719
• 关键词: government spending multipliers; income changes; expenditure; consumption; POLICY; RECOVERY; shocks

摘要

US federal transfers to individuals are large, countercyclical, vary geographically, and are often credited with helping to stabilize regional economies. This paper estimates the -short-run effects of these transfers using plausibly exogenous regional variation in temporary stimulus payments and permanent Social Security benefit increases. States that received larger transfers tended to grow faster contemporaneously, with a multiplier of around 1.5 for permanent transfers and 1/ 3 for temporary transfers. Results are broadly consistent with an open-economy New Keynesian model. At business cycle frequencies, -cross-region transfer multipliers are not large, suggesting only modest gains in regional stabilization from US federal automatic stabilizers.