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作者：Bailey, Martha J.; Sun, Shuqiao; Timpe, Brenden
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; The World Bank; University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln
摘要：This paper evaluates the long-run effects of Head Start using large-scale, restricted administrative data. Using the county roll-out of Head Start between 1965 and 1980 and age-eligibility cutoffs for school entry, we find that Head Start generated large increases in adult human capital and economic self-sufficiency, including a 0.-65-year increase in schooling, a 2.-7 percent increase in high school completion, an 8.5 percent increase in college enrollment, and a 39 percent increase in colleg...
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作者：Norris, Samuel; Pecenco, Matthew; Weaver, Jeffrey
作者单位：University of Chicago; Brown University; University of Southern California
摘要：Every year, millions of Americans experience the incarceration of a family member. Using 30 years of administrative data from Ohio and exploiting differing incarceration propensities of randomly assigned judges, this paper provides the first quasi-experimental estimates of the effects of parental and sibling incarceration in the United States. Parental incarceration has beneficial effects on some important outcomes for children, reducing their likelihood of incarceration by 4.9 percentage poin...
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作者：Carneiro, Pedro; Kraftman, Lucy; Mason, Giacomo; Moore, Lucie; Rasul, Imran; Scott, Molly
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：We evaluate an intervention targeting early life nutrition and well-being for households in extreme poverty in Northern Nigeria. The intervention leads to large and sustained improvements in children's anthropometric and health outcomes, including an 8 percent reduction in stunting 4 years, post-intervention. These impacts are partly driven by information-related channels. However, the certain and substantial flow of cash transfers is also key. They induce positive labor supply responses among...
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作者：Mertens, Thomas M.; Williams, John C.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：This paper analyzes the effects of the lower bound for interest rates on the distributions of inflation and interest rates. In a New Keynesian model with a lower bound, two equilibria emerge: policy is mostly unconstrained in the target equilibrium, whereas policy is mostly constrained in the liquidity trap equilibrium. Using options data on interest rates and inflation, we find forecast densities consistent with the target equilibrium and find no evidence in favor of the liquidity trap equili...
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作者：Seibold, Arthur
作者单位：University of Mannheim
摘要：This paper studies the large concentration of retirement behavior around statutory retirement ages, a puzzling stylized fact. To investigate this fact, I estimate bunching responses to 644 pension benefit discontinuities, using administrative data on the universe of German retirees. Financial incentives alone cannot explain retirement patterns, but there is a large direct effect of statutory retirement ages. I argue that the framing of statutory ages as reference points for retirement provides...
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作者：Sterk, Vincent; Sedlacek, Petr; Pugsley, Benjamin
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Oxford; University of Notre Dame
摘要：About one-half of all startups fail within five years, and those that survive grow at vastly different speeds. Using Census microdata, we estimate that most of these differences are determined by ex ante heterogeneity rather than persistent ex post shocks. Embedding such heterogeneity in a firm dynamics model shows that the presence of ex ante heterogeneity (i) is a key determinant of the firm size distribution and firm dynamics, (ii) can strongly affect the macroeconomic effects of firm-level...
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作者：Berger, David; Milbradt, Konstantin; Tourre, Fabrice; Vavra, Joseph
作者单位：Duke University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Copenhagen Business School; University of Chicago
摘要：How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed -loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rat...
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作者：Beerli, Andreas; Ruffner, Jan; Siegenthaler, Michael; Peri, Giovanni
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：We study a reform that granted European cross-border workers free access to the Swiss labor market and had a stronger effect on regions close to the border. The greater availability of cross-border workers increased foreign employment substantially. Although many cross-border workers were highly educated, wages of highly educated natives increased. The reason is a simultaneous increase in labor demand: the reform increased the size, productivity, and innovation performance of skill-intensive i...
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作者：Levy, Ro'ee
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Does the consumption of ideologically congruent news on social media exacerbate polarization? I estimate the effects of social media news exposure by conducting a large field experiment randomly offering participants subscriptions to conservative or liberal news outlets on Facebook. I collect data on the causal chain of media effects: subscriptions to outlets, exposure to news on Facebook, visits to online news sites, and sharing of posts, as well as changes in political opinions and attitudes...
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作者：Goeree, Jacob K.; Louis, Philippos
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; University of Cyprus
摘要：We introduce a set-valued solution concept, M equilibrium, to capture empirical regularities from over half a century of game theory experiments. We show M equilibrium serves as a meta theory for various models that hitherto were considered unrelated. M equilibrium is empirically robust and, despite being set-valued, falsifiable. Results from a series of experiments that compare M equilibrium to leading behavioral game theory models demonstrate its virtues in predicting observed choices and st...
