Detecting p-Hacking
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Elliott, Graham; Kudrin, Nikolay; Wuthrich, Kaspar
署名单位：
University of California System; University of California San Diego
刊物名称：
ECONOMETRICA
ISSN/ISSBN：
0012-9682
DOI：
10.3982/ECTA18583
发表日期：
2022
页码：
887-906
关键词：
摘要：
We theoretically analyze the problem of testing for p-hacking based on distributions of p-values across multiple studies. We provide general results for when such distributions have testable restrictions (are non-increasing) under the null of no p-hacking. We find novel additional testable restrictions for p-values based on t-tests. Specifically, the shape of the power functions results in both complete monotonicity as well as bounds on the distribution of p-values. These testable restrictions result in more powerful tests for the null hypothesis of no p-hacking. When there is also publication bias, our tests are joint tests for p-hacking and publication bias. A reanalysis of two prominent data sets shows the usefulness of our new tests.