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作者：Bidwell, Kelly; Casey, Katherine; Glennerster, Rachel
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Candidate debates have a rich history and remain integral to contemporary campaign strategy. There is, however, little evidence that they affect the behavior of voters or politicians. The scarcity of political information in the developing world offers an attractive testing ground. Using experimental variation in Sierra Leone, we find that public debate screenings build political knowledge that changes the way people vote, which induces a campaign expenditure response by candidates and fosters...
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作者：Allen, Treb; Arkolakis, Costas; Takahashi, Yuta
作者单位：Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：We study the theoretical properties and counterfactual predictions of a large class of general equilibrium trade and economic geography models. By combining aggregate factor supply and demand functions with market-clearing conditions, we prove that existence, uniqueness, and-given observed trade flows-the counterfactual predictions of any model within this class depend only on the demand and supply elasticities (gravity constants). Using a new model-implied instrumental variables approach, we ...
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作者：McGuirk, Eoin; Burke, Marshall
作者单位：Tufts University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study the impact of global food price shocks on local violence across Africa. In food-producing areas, higher prices reduce conflict over the control of territory (factor conflict) and increase conflict over the appropriation of surplus (output conflict). We argue that this difference arises because higher prices increase the opportunity cost of soldiering for producers while simultaneously inducing consumers to appropriate surplus as real wages fall. In areas without crop agriculture, high...
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作者：Caucutt, Elizabeth M.; Lochner, Lance
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We develop a dynastic human capital investment framework to study the importance of family borrowing constraints and uninsured labor market risk, as well as the process of intergenerational ability transmission, in determining human capital investments in children at different ages. We calibrate our model to data from the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. While the effects of relaxing any borrowing limit at a single stage are modest, eliminating all life-cycle borrowing li...
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作者：Milgrom, Paul; Segal, Ilya
作者单位：Stanford University
摘要：We study the class of multiround, multiproduct clock procurement auctions that reduce offered prices at each round. When prices stop declining, the remaining bidders become the winning sellers. For single-minded bidders, each such auction has five properties not shared by Vickrey auctions: each is obviously strategy-proof and group-strategy-proof, sets prices that are Nash equilibrium winning bids in the related first-price auction, preserves winner privacy about values, and can be extended to...
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作者：Chew, Soo Hong; Huang, Wei; Zhao, Xiaojian
作者单位：Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China; National University of Singapore; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen; Monash University
摘要：People often forget and sometimes fantasize. This paper reports a large-scale experiment on memory errors and their relation to preferential traits including time preference, attitudes toward risk and ambiguity, and psychological characteristics such as anticipatory feelings. We observe systematic incidences of false memory in favor of positive events and positive amnesia in forgetting past negative events. Both positive delusion and positive confabulation significantly relate to present bias,...
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作者：Decarolis, Francesco; Polyakova, Maria; Ryan, Stephen P.
作者单位：Bocconi University; Stanford University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; National Bureau of Economic Research; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：The efficiency of publicly subsidized, privately provisioned social insurance programs depends on the interaction between strategic insurers and the subsidy mechanism. We study this interaction in the context of Medicare's prescription drug coverage program. We find that the observed mechanism is successful in keeping raise-the-subsidy incentives relatively low, acts much like a flat voucher, and obtains a level of welfare close to that for the optimal voucher. Across a range of counterfactual...
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作者：Sobel, Joel
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：This article proposes definitions of lying, deception, and damage in strategic settings. Lying depends on the existence of accepted meanings for messages but does not require a model of how the audience responds to messages. Deception does require a model of how the audience interprets messages but does not directly refer to consequences. Damage requires consideration of the consequences of messages. Lies need not be deceptive. Deception does not require lying. Lying and deception are compatib...
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作者：Giorcelli, Michela; Moser, Petra
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research; New York University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper exploits variation in the adoption of copyrights within Italy-due to the timing of Napoleon's military victories-to investigate the causal effects of copyrights on creativity. Baseline regressions compare changes in opera production across Italian states with and without copyrights. This analysis yields three main results. First, the adoption of copyrights led to a significant increase in the number of newly created operas. Second, copyrights raised the quality of new operas, measur...
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作者：Herskovic, Bernard; Kelly, Bryan; Lustig, Hanno; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Firm volatilities comove strongly over time, and their common factor is the dispersion of the economy-wide firm size distribution. In the cross section, smaller firms and firms with a more concentrated customer base display higher volatility. Network effects are essential to explaining the joint evolution of the empirical firm size and firm volatility distributions. We propose and estimate a simple network model of firm volatility in which shocks to customers influence their suppliers. Larger ...
