The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: McGuirk, Eoin; Burke, Marshall
• 署名单位: Tufts University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/709993
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 3940-3997
• 关键词: GLOBAL FOOD-PRICES; civil conflict; commodity prices; shocks; poverty; WAR; weather; climate; GROWTH; COSTS

摘要

We study the impact of global food price shocks on local violence across Africa. In food-producing areas, higher prices reduce conflict over the control of territory (factor conflict) and increase conflict over the appropriation of surplus (output conflict). We argue that this difference arises because higher prices increase the opportunity cost of soldiering for producers while simultaneously inducing consumers to appropriate surplus as real wages fall. In areas without crop agriculture, higher prices increase both forms of conflict. We validate our local-level findings on output conflict using survey data. Our findings help reconcile a growing but ambiguous literature on the economic roots of conflict.