Universal Gravity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Allen, Treb; Arkolakis, Costas; Takahashi, Yuta
• 署名单位: Dartmouth College; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University; Hitotsubashi University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/704385
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 393-433
• 关键词: General equilibrium; trade models; welfare; EXISTENCE; demand; IMPACT; income; GOODS

摘要

We study the theoretical properties and counterfactual predictions of a large class of general equilibrium trade and economic geography models. By combining aggregate factor supply and demand functions with market-clearing conditions, we prove that existence, uniqueness, and-given observed trade flows-the counterfactual predictions of any model within this class depend only on the demand and supply elasticities (gravity constants). Using a new model-implied instrumental variables approach, we estimate these gravity constants and use these estimates to compute the impact of a trade war between the United States and China.