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作者：Busch, Christopher; Domeij, David; Guvenen, Fatih; Madera, Rocio
作者单位：University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Stockholm School of Economics; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Southern Methodist University
摘要：We provide new evidence on business cycle fluctuations in skewed labor income risk in the United States, Germany, Sweden, and France. We document four results. First, in all countries, the skewness of individual income growth is strongly procyclical, whereas its variance is flat and acyclical. Second, this result also holds for continuously employed, full-time workers, indicating that the hours margin is not the main driver; additional analyses of hours and wages confirm that both margins are ...
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作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Roch, Francisco
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：We study fiscal rules using a sovereign default model. A debt-brake (spread-brake) rule imposes a ceiling on the fiscal deficit when the sovereign debt (spread) is above a threshold. For our benchmark cali-bration, similar gains can be achieved with the optimal debt or spread brake. However, for a Union of heterogeneous economies, a com-mon spread brake generates larger gains than a common debt brake. Furthermore, gains from abandoning a common debt brake may be significant for economies that ...
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作者：Adrian, Tobias; Grinberg, Federico; Liang, Nellie; Malik, Sheheryar; Yu, Jie
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Columbia University
摘要：We show that the conditional distribution of forecasted GDP growth depends on financial conditions in a panel of 11 advanced economies. Financial conditions have a larger effect on the lower fifth percentile of conditional growth which we call growth-at-risk (GaR) than the median. In addition, the term structure of GaR reflects that when initial financial conditions are loose, downside risks are lower in the near term but increase in later quarters. This intertemporal tradeoff for loose financ...
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作者：Pries, Michael J.; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; Princeton University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Using the Quarterly Workforce Indicators database, we document that a significant amount of the decline in labor market turnover during the last two decades is accounted for by the decline in employment spells that last just one or two quarters. This phenomenon is pervasive: short-term employment spells have declined across industries, firm size categories, demographic groups, and geographic regions. Using a search-and-matching model in the Diamond-MortensenPissarides tradition that incorporat...
