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作者：Papageorgiou, Theodore
作者单位：Boston College
摘要：In this paper, I document that workers in larger cities have significantly more occupational options than workers in smaller ones. They are able to form better occupational matches and earn higher wages. I also note differences in occupation reallocation patterns across cities. I develop a dynamic model of occupation choice that microfounds agglomeration economies and captures the empirical patterns. The calibration of the model suggests that better occupational match quality accounts for appr...
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作者：Fattal-Jaef, Roberto N.
作者单位：The World Bank
摘要：This paper studies the interaction between barriers to firm entry and distortions to allocative efficiency in a standard model of firm dynamics. We derive a strategy to infer entry barriers based on cross-country differences in the firm size distribution and idiosyncratic distortions. The inferred barriers resemble regulation-based indicators in advanced economies but are substantially higher in middle-and low-income countries. Regulation-based indicators cannot account for cross-country diffe...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Akcigit, Ufuk; Celik, Murat Alp
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Chicago; University of Toronto
摘要：We investigate the determinants of radical (creative) innovations that break new ground in knowledge creation. We develop a model focusing on the choice between incremental and radical innovation and on how managers of different ages and human capital are sorted across firms. Firm- and patent-level evidence reveals that firms that are more open to disruption are significantly more likely to engage in radical innovation and hire younger managers and inventors with a comparative advantage in rad...
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作者：Davis, J. Scott; Devereux, Michael B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; University of British Columbia
摘要：Capital controls may be justified as a policy to combat a financial crisis. But for large economies, capital controls may have substantial spillovers to the rest of the world. We investigate the case for capi-tal controls in a large open economy, when domestic financial con-straints may bind during a crisis. When the crisis country is indebted, it must trade off the desire to tax inflows to improve the terms of trade and tax outflows to ease financial constraints. This trade-off renders noncoo...
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作者：Gortz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco
作者单位：University of Birmingham; University of Glasgow; University of Oxford
摘要：We examine the dynamic effects of TFP news shocks in the context of frictions in financial markets. We document two new facts. First, a shock to future TFP generates a significant decline in credit spread indicators along with a robust improvement in credit supply indi-cators. Second, we establish a tight link between TFP news shocks and shocks that explain the majority of un-forecastable movements in credit spread indicators. A DSGE model enriched with a financial sector of the Gertler-Kiyota...
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作者：Kindermann, Fabian; Krueger, Dirk
作者单位：University of Regensburg; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Tilburg University; University of Regensburg; University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：This paper argues that high marginal labor income tax rates on top earners are an effective tool for social insurance even when households have high labor supply elasticity, households make dynamic savings decisions, and policies have general equilibrium effects. We construct a large-scale overlapping generations model with uninsurable labor productivity risk, show that it has a realistic wealth distribution, and numerically characterize the optimal top marginal rate. We find that marginal tax...
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作者：Beaudry, Paul; Willems, Tim
作者单位：Bank of Canada; International Monetary Fund
摘要：Analyzing International Monetary Fund (IMF) data, we find that overly optimistic growth expectations for a country induce economic contractions a few years later. To isolate the causal effect, we take an instrumental variable approach-exploiting randomness in the country allocation of IMF mission chiefs. We first document that IMF mission chiefs differ in their individual degrees of forecast optimism, yielding quasi-experimental variation in the degree of forecast optimism at the country level...
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作者：Uribe, Martin
作者单位：Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper assesses the presence and importance of the neo-Fisher effect in postwar data. It formulates and estimates an empirical and a New Keynesian model driven by stationary and nonstationary monetary and real shocks. In accordance with conventional wisdom, temporary increases in the nominal interest rate are estimated to cause decreases in inflation and output. The main finding of the paper is that permanent monetary shocks that increase the nominal interest rate and inflation in the long...
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作者：Bils, Mark; Chang, Yongsung; Kim, Sun-Bin
作者单位：University of Rochester; Seoul National University (SNU); Yonsei University
摘要：We consider a matching model of employment with flexible wages for new hires but sticky wages within matches. Unlike most models of sticky wages, we allow effort to respond if wages are too high or too low. In the Mortensen-Pissarides model, employment is not affected by wage stickiness in existing matches. But it is in our model. If wages of matched workers are stuck too high, firms require more effort, lowering the value of additional labor and reducing hiring. We find that effort's response...
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作者：Cravino, Javier; Levchenko, Andrei; Rojas, Marco
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Central Bank of Chile
摘要：We quantify the role of population aging in the structural transfor-mation process. Household-level data from the United States show that the fraction of expenditures devoted to services increases with household age. We use a shift-share decomposition and a quantita-tive model to show that US population aging accounted for about a fifth of the observed increase in the service share in consumption between 1982 and 2016. The contribution of population aging to the rise in the service share is ab...
