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作者：Dovis, Alessandro; Kirpalani, Rishabh
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We propose a joint theory for interest rate dynamics and bailout decisions. Interest rate spreads are driven by time-varying fundamentals and expectations of future bailouts. Private agents are uncertain about the government's willingness to bail out and learn by observing its actions. The model provides an explanation for why we observe governments initially refusing to bail out borrowers at the beginning of a crisis even if they eventually end up providing a bailout after the crisis aggravat...
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作者：Pouzo, Demian; Presno, Ignacio
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：How are the optimal tax and debt policies affected if the government can default on its debt? We address this question from a normative perspective in an economy with noncontingent government debt, domestic default, and labor taxes. On one hand, default prevents the government from incurring future tax distortions associated with servicing the debt. On the other hand, default risk gives rise to endogenous credit limits that hinder the government???s ability to smooth taxes. We characterize the...
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作者：Akinci, Ozge; Queralto, Albert
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Credit spreads display occasional spikes and are more strongly countercyclical in times of elevated financial stress. Financial crises are extreme cases of this nonlinear behavior, featuring skyrocketing credit spreads, sharp losses in bank equity, and deep recessions. We develop and estimate a macroeconomic model with a banking sector in which banks' leverage constraints are occasionally binding and equity issuance is endogenous. The model captures the nonlinearities in the data and produces ...
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作者：Roi
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：I study efficiency and optimal monetary policy in a two-country monetary union with frictional labor markets. With heterogeneity in labor market frictions, the constrained efficient allocation generically cannot be achieved even if productivity shocks affecting each country are the same. The second-best optimal policy targets smaller inflation and output gaps in the more sclerotic labor market. A quantitative calibration to the eurozone implies welfare gains from redefining the union's inflati...
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作者：Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando; Tsyvinski, Aleh
作者单位：Yale University; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We model the world economy as one system of endogenous input-out-put relationships subject to frictions and study how the world's input-output structure and world's GDP change due to changes in frictions. We derive a sufficient statistic to identify frictions from the observed world input-output matrix, which we fully match for the year 2011. We show how changes in internal frictions impact the whole structure of the world's economy and that they have a much larger effect on world's GDP than e...
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作者：Hemous, David; Olsen, Morten
作者单位：University of Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Copenhagen
摘要：We build an endogenous growth model with automation (the replacement of low-skill workers with machines) and horizontal innovation (the creation of new products). Over time, the share of automation innovations endogenously increases through an increase in low-skill wages, leading to an increase in the skill premium and a decline in the labor share. We calibrate the model to the US economy and show that it quantitatively replicates the paths of the skill premium, the labor share, and labor prod...
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作者：Commault, Jeanne
作者单位：Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
摘要：Studies based on natural experiments find that consumption responds strongly and significantly to a transitory variation in income, while semistructural estimations find no pass-through of transitory shocks to consumption. I develop a more robust semistructural estimator that relaxes the assumption that log consumption is a random walk. The robust pass-through estimate is significant and large, implying a yearly marginal propensity to consume of 0.32, close to the natural experiment findings. ...
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作者：Fiszbein, Martin
作者单位：Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines the role of agricultural diversity in the pro-cess of development. Using data from US counties and exploiting climate-induced variation in agricultural production patterns, I show that mid-nineteenth-century agricultural diversity had positive long-run effects on population density and income per capita. During the Second Industrial Revolution, agricultural diversity fostered industrialization, diversification within manufacturing, patent activity, formation of new labor sk...
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作者：Becard, Yvan; Gauthier, David
作者单位：Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro; Bank of England
摘要：We estimate a macroeconomic model on US data where banks lend to households and businesses and simultaneously adjust lending requirements on the two types of loans. We find that the collateral shock, a change in the ability of the financial sector to redeploy collateral, is the most important force driving the business cycle. Hit by this unique disturbance, our model quantitatively replicates the joint dynamics of output, consumption, investment, employment, and both household and business cre...
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作者：Kohlhas, Alexandre N.
摘要：A common view states that central bank releases decrease central banks' own information about the economy and are harmful if about inefficient disturbances, such as cost-push shocks. This paper shows how neither is true in a microfounded macroeconomic model in which households and firms learn from central bank releases and the central bank learns from the observation of firm prices. Central bank releases make private sector and central bank expectations closer to common knowledge. This helps t...
