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作者：Peterman, William B.; Sager, Erick
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper determines optimal public debt in a life cycle model with incomplete markets that matches the empirically observed variation in consumption, labor, and savings. We find that public savings-not public debt-equal to 168 percent of output is optimal, primarily due to the influence of the life cycle on household decision-making. By inducing a lower interest rate, public savings slow consumption and leisure growth over an average household's lifetime, and the result-ing flatter allocatio...
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作者：Walentin, Karl; Westermark, Andreas
作者单位：Uppsala University; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：We show that business cycles reduce welfare through a decrease in the average level of employment in a labor market search model with learning on the job and skill loss during unemployment. Empirically, unemployment and the job-finding rate are negatively correlated. Since new jobs are the product of these two from the employment transition equation, business cycles imply fewer new jobs. Learning on the job implies that the resulting decrease in employment reduces aggregate human capital. This...
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作者：Aastveit, Knut Are; Anundsen, Andre K.
作者单位：Norges Bank; BI Norwegian Business School; Oslo Metropolitan University (OsloMet)
摘要：The responsiveness of house prices to monetary policy shocks depends on the nature of the shock-expansionary versus contractionary-and on local housing supply elasticities. These findings are established using a panel of 263 US metropolitan areas. Expansionary monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on house prices in supply-inelastic areas. Contractionary shocks are orthogonal to housing supply elas-ticities. In supply-elastic areas, contractionary shocks have a greater impact on house pr...
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作者：Belot, Michele; Kircher, Philipp; Muller, Paul
作者单位：Cornell University; University of Edinburgh; Universite Catholique Louvain; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：In a field experiment, we study how job seekers respond to posted wages by assigning wages randomly to pairs of otherwise similar vacancies in a large number of professions. Higher wages attract significantly more interest. Still, a nontrivial number of applicants only reveal an interest in the low-wage vacancy. With a comple-mentary survey, we show that external raters perceive higher-wage jobs as more competitive. These findings qualitatively support core predictions of theories of directed/...
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作者：Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Phelan, Gregory
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Williams College
摘要：In standard Walrasian macro finance models, pecuniary externalities due to fire sales lead to excessive borrowing and insufficient liquidity holdings. We investigate whether imperfect competition (Cournot) improves welfare through internalizing the externality and find that this is far from guaranteed. Cournot competition can overcorrect the inefficiently high borrowing in a standard model of levered real investment. By contrast, Cournot competition can exacerbate the inefficiently low liquidi...
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作者：Carlsson, Mikael; Westermark, Andreas
作者单位：Uppsala University; Sveriges Riksbank; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：We show that in microdata , as well as in a search and matching model with flexible wages for new hires , wage rigidities of incumbent workers have substantial effects on separations and unemployment volatility. Allowing for an empirically relevant degree of wage rigidities for incumbent workers drives unemployment volatility as well as the volatility of vacancies and tightness to that in the data. Thus , the degree of wage rigidity for newly hired workers is not a sufficient statistic for det...
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作者：Mandelman, Federico S.; Zlate, Andrei
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We show that the observed polarization of employment toward the high-and low-skill occupations disappears when only native workers are considered. Instead, low-skilled immigration explains employment growth at the low tail of the skill distribution. Moreover, while employment rose, wages remained subdued in low-skill occupations. A data-disciplined structural model accounts for this evidence: Offshoring and automation negatively affect middle-skill occupations but enhance employment and wages ...
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：Liquidity traps can be either fundamental or confidence-driven. In a simple, unified New Keynesian framework, I provide the analytical condition for the latter's prevalence: enough shock persistence and endogenous intertemporal amplification of future (news) shocks, making income effects dominate substitution effects. The same condition allows neo-Fisherian effects (expansionary-inflationary interest rate increases), which are thus inherent in confidence traps. Several monetary and fiscal poli...
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作者：Johri, Alok; Rahman, Md Mahbubur
作者单位：McMaster University; Statistics Canada
摘要：India's relative price of investment rose 44 percent from 1981 to 1991 and fell 26 percent from 1991 to 2006. We build a simple DGE model, calibrated to Indian data, in order to explore the impact of capital import substitution policies and their reform post-1991 in accounting for this rise and fall. Our model delivers a 23 percent rise before reform and a 31 percent fall thereafter. GDP per effective labor was 3 percent lower in 1991 compared to 1981 due to import restrictions on capital good...
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作者：Erosa, Andres; Fuster, Luisa; Kambourov, Gueorgui; Rogerson, Richard
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Toronto; Princeton University; Princeton University
摘要：Goldin (2014) offers a narrative in which gender differences in home production responsibilities create gender gaps in labor market outcomes. We carry out a model-based quantitative assessment of this narrative and find that it can account for a significant share of gender gaps in occupational choice, wages, and hours. Our analysis emphasizes the quantitative significance of two key elements not highlighted by Goldin: heterogeneity in comparative advantage and multimember households. Gender di...
