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作者：Almgren, Mattias; Gallegos, Jose-Elias; Kramer, John; Lima, Ricardo
作者单位：Stockholm University; Banco de Espana; Stockholm University; University of Copenhagen
摘要：In 2016, 30 percent of households in Germany reported that they could not meet an unexpected, immediate expense of 985 euros. At the same time, 40 percent of Italian households reported that they would be unable to meet an unexpected expense of 800 euros.1 Figures like these suggest that a significant portion of households hold few liquid assets, which potentially makes them vulnerable to unexpected shocks to the economy. These households have received special attention recently, especially in...
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作者：Blandin, Adam; Herrington, Christopher
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; Virginia Commonwealth University
摘要：From 1995 to 2015 the aggregate US college completion rate increased almost 50 percent, but completion trends differed markedly by family background. We consider whether changing college preparedness contributed to growth in aggregate completion and differences by family background. We first document parallel empirical trends in precollege investments, college preparedness, and completion. We use these moments to discipline a quantitative model of intergenerational human capital investment wit...
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作者：Faccini, Renato; Melosi, Leonardo
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; European University Institute; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Current and expected unemployment rates contain information that is highly useful to estimate the effect of news about TFP and to allow a general equilibrium rational expectations model to generate Pigouvian cycles: a large fraction of the comovement of output, consumption, investment, employment, and real wages is explained by noise about TFP. These results emerge because of the low -frequency negative relationship between unemployment and TFP growth. The model predicts that the start (end ) ...
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作者：Helpman, Elhanan; Niswonger, Benjamin
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We develop a model with a finite number of multiproduct firms together with a continuum of single-product firms and study the dynamics that arise from product innovation. Consistent with the available evidence, the model predicts rising markups and concentration and a declining labor share. Our dynamics predict the possibility of an inverted-U relationship between labor productivity and product span, for which we provide suggestive evidence. In the optimal allocation, product span and labor pr...
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作者：Miranda-Pinto, Jorge; Youngs, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Queensland; University of Virginia; Zhejiang University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We show that during the Great Recession, more-flexible sectors paid lower sectoral bond spreads. We rationalize this fact with a model with input-output linkages, heterogeneous elasticities, and binding working capital constraints in the use of intermediates. We show that the difference in flexibility between upstream and downstream sectors is key for determining the role of input-output linkages in amplifying or mitigating distortions. Calibrating the model to the US economy, we find that our...
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作者：Zheng, Angela; Graham, James
作者单位：McMaster University; University of Sydney
摘要：Public school funding depends heavily on local property tax reve-nue. Consequently, low-income households have limited access to quality education in neighborhoods with high house prices. In a dynamic life-cycle model with neighborhood choice and endogenous local school quality, we show that this property tax funding mecha-nism reduces intergenerational mobility and accounts for the spatial correlation between house prices and mobility. A housing voucher experiment improves access to schools, ...
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作者：Jungherr, Joachim; Schott, Immo
作者单位：University of Bonn; Universite de Montreal; Universite de Montreal
摘要：Business credit lags GDP growth by about one year. This contributes to high leverage during recessions and slow deleveraging. We show that a model in which firms use risky long-term debt replicates this slow adjustment of firm debt. In the model, slow-moving debt has important effects for real activity. High levels of firm debt issued during expansions are only gradually reduced during recessions. This generates an adverse feedback loop between high default rates and low investment and thereby...
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作者：Bergholt, Drago; Furlanetto, Francesco; Maffei-Faccioli, Nicolo
作者单位：Norges Bank; BI Norwegian Business School; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; Bocconi University
摘要：We use time series techniques to estimate the importance of four main explanations for the decline of the US labor income share: rising firm markups, falling bargaining power of workers, higher investment-specific technology growth, and more automated production processes. Identification is achieved with restrictions derived from a stylized model of structural change. Our results point to automation as the main driver of the labor share, although rising markups have played an important role in...
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作者：Cai, Jie; Li, Nan; Santacreu, Ana Maria
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：This paper provides a unified framework for quantifying the cross-country and cross-sector interactions among trade, inno-vation, and knowledge diffusion. This framework is used to study the effect of trade liberalization in an endogenous growth model in which comparative advantage and the stock of knowledge are determined by innovation and diffusion. The model is calibrated to match observed cross-country and cross-sector heterogeneity in pro-duction, innovation efficiency, and knowledge spil...
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作者：Allen, Franklin; Barlevy, Gadi; Gale, Douglas
作者单位：Imperial College London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; New York University
摘要：This paper uses a risk-shifting model to analyze policy responses to asset price booms. We show risk shifting leads to inefficient asset and credit booms in which asset prices can exceed fundamentals. However, the inefficiencies associated with risk shifting arise independently of whether the asset is a bubble. Given evidence of risk shifting, policymakers may not need to determine if assets are bubbles to justify intervention. We then show that some of the main candidate interventions against...
