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作者：Jacobsen, Grant D.; Parker, Dominic P.
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：The current US oil and gas boom is injecting labour, capital and revenue into communities near reserves. Will these communities be cursed with lower long-run incomes in the wake of the boom? We study the oil boom-and-bust cycle of the 1970s and 1980s to gain insights. Using annual data on drilling to identify western boom-and-bust counties, we find substantial positive local employment and income effects during the boom. In the aftermath of the bust, however, we find that incomes per capita de...
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作者：Foellmi, Reto; Legge, Stefan; Schmid, Lukas
作者单位：University of St Gallen; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Does information processing affect individual risk-taking behaviour? This article provides evidence that professional athletes suffer from a left-digit bias when dealing with signals about differences in performance. Using data from the highly competitive field of World Cup alpine skiing for the period of 1992-2014, we show that athletes misinterpret actual differences in race times by focusing on the leftmost digit, which results in increased risk-taking behaviour. For the estimation of causa...
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作者：Teles, Pedro; Uhlig, Harald; Valle e Azevedo, Joao
作者单位：Universidade Catolica Portuguesa; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Banco de Portugal; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
摘要：This article investigates whether the quantity theory of money is still alive. We demonstrate three insights. First, for countries with low inflation, the raw relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best. Second, the fit markedly improves, when correcting for variation in output growth and the opportunity cost of money, using elasticities implied by the theories of Baumol-Tobin and Miller-Orr. Finally, a subsample characterised by the adoption of infla...
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作者：Arnold, Jens Matthias; Javorcik, Beata; Lipscomb, Molly; Mattoo, Aaditya
作者单位：University of Oxford; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD); University of Oxford; University of Virginia; The World Bank
摘要：Conventional explanations for the post-1991 growth of India's manufacturing sector focus on goods trade liberalisation and industrial delicensing. We demonstrate the powerful contribution of a neglected factor: India's policy reforms in services. The link between these reforms and the productivity of manufacturing firms is examined using panel data for about 4,000 Indian firms for the period 1993-2005. We find that banking, telecommunications, insurance and transport reforms all had significan...
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作者：Chaney, Eric; Hornbeck, Richard
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Chicago
摘要：We investigate economic dynamics in the Malthusian era using the 1609 expulsion of Moriscos from Spain. Sharp population declines in former-Morisco districts were accompanied by decreased output and increased per capita output. While these short-run results are consistent with standard Malthusian predictions, Malthusian convergence was delayed up to 1786 in former-Morisco districts. Archival sources and historical accounts suggest extractive institutions and cultural differences may have contr...
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作者：Ettinger, David; Michelucci, Fabio
作者单位：Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences; Charles University Prague; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD); Laboratoire dEconomie de Dauphine LEDa; Universite de Montreal
摘要：We analyse a rationale for hiding information in open ascending auction formats. We focus on the incentives for a bidder to call a price higher than the highest standing one in order to prevent the remaining active bidders from aggregating more accurate information by observing the exact dropout values of the opponents who exit the auction. We show that the decision whether to allow jump bids or not can have a drastic impact on revenue and efficiency.
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作者：Gill, David; Thanassoulis, John
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Warwick; University of Oxford; University of Oxford
摘要：We study price competition between firms over public list or posted prices when a fraction of consumers can subsequently receive discounts with some probability. Such stochastic discounts are a feature of markets in which some consumers bargain explicitly and of markets in which sellers use the marketing practice of couponing. Even though bargainers receive reductions off the posted prices, the potential to discount dampens competitive pressure in the market, thus raising all prices and increa...
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作者：Saint-Paul, Gilles; Ticchi, Davide; Vindigni, Andrea
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; IMT School for Advanced Studies Lucca; Collegio Carlo Alberto
摘要：Can an incumbent political party increase its chances at re-election by implementing inefficient policies that harm its constituency? This paper studies the possibility of such a phenomenon, which we label political entrenchment. We use a two-party dynamic model of redistribution with probabilistic voting. Political entrenchment by the Left occurs only if incumbency rents are sufficiently high. Low-skill citizens may vote for this party even though they rationally expect the adoption of these ...
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作者：Chung, Kim-Sau; Fortnow, Lance
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong; Northwestern University
摘要：We formalise the argument of those American founding fathers who opposed the inclusion of the Bill of Rights into the Constitution. For some parameter values, the legislator, who is not sure whether or not there are any rights that he is unaware of, optimally chooses not to enumerate even those rights that he is aware of. We also show that, even if the legislator can add the sentence 'this Bill should not be interpreted as suggesting that any unlisted rights can be impaired by the government' ...
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作者：Barro, Robert J.; Misra, Sanjay
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：From 1836 to 2011, gold's average annual real rate of price change is 1.1%, with a standard deviation of 13.1% and a negligible covariance with consumption growth. Because gold does not serve as a hedge against macroeconomic declines, its expected real rate of return should be close to the risk-free rate of around 1%. These properties fit an asset-pricing model with rare disasters and a high elasticity of substitution between gold services and ordinary consumption. In this scenario, gold's exp...
