Is Quantity Theory Still Alive?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Teles, Pedro; Uhlig, Harald; Valle e Azevedo, Joao
• 署名单位: Universidade Catolica Portuguesa; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Banco de Portugal; Universidade Nova de Lisboa
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1111/ecoj.12336
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 442-464
• 关键词: unit-root tests; transactions demand; welfare cost; panel-data; financial innovation; 2 illustrations; money; cointegration; regression; inflation

摘要

This article investigates whether the quantity theory of money is still alive. We demonstrate three insights. First, for countries with low inflation, the raw relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous at best. Second, the fit markedly improves, when correcting for variation in output growth and the opportunity cost of money, using elasticities implied by the theories of Baumol-Tobin and Miller-Orr. Finally, a subsample characterised by the adoption of inflation targeting shows considerably less inflation variability, worsening the fit of a one-for-one relationship between money growth and inflation.