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作者：Dur, Robert; Non, Arjan; Prottung, Paul; Ricci, Benedetta
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Tinbergen Institute; Erasmus University Rotterdam; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Boston Consulting Group (BCG)
摘要：In many public policy areas, randomised policy experiments can greatly contribute to our knowledge of the effects of policies and can thus help to improve public policy. However, policy experiments are not very common. This paper studies whether a lack of appreciation for policy experiments among voters may be the reason for this. Collecting survey data representative of the Dutch electorate, we find clear evidence contradicting this view. Voters strongly support policy experimentation and par...
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作者：Braun, Christine
作者单位：University of Warwick
摘要：I document a substantial rise in the proportion of job seekers who are classified as out of the labour force in the United States since 1980. I propose an adjusted unemployment rate to account for these searchers; the adjustment increases the unemployment rate by 5.2 percentage points, rids the unemployment rate of its downward trend and decreases volatility by 50%. I also construct a measure of total search effort in the economy, including employed job seekers. Finally, estimates of the Phill...
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作者：Holmen, M.
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作者：He, Simin; Kucinskas, Simas
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：We experimentally study how people form expectations about correlated variables. Subjects forecast a time-series variable A. In treatment Baseline, subjects only observe past values of A. In treatment Correlated, they additionally observe a correlated variable B; A is equally predictable and has the same univariate properties in both treatments. Subjects are significantly less accurate and underreact more in Correlated, inconsistent with Bayesian learning. A structural-model estimation indicat...
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作者：Condorelli, Daniele; Padilla, Jorge
作者单位：University of Warwick
摘要：We present a theory of monopoly protection by means of entry in adjacent markets that have a common customer base (i.e., envelopment). A firm dominant in its market enters a data-rich secondary market and engages in predatory pricing and privacy-policy tying. We define the latter as conditioning service provision to the subscription of a privacy policy that allows bundling of user data across all sources. Acquiring data from the secondary market confers an advantage in the data-intensive prima...
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作者：Panunzi, Fausto; Pavoni, Nicola; Tabellini, Guido
作者单位：Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We study how voters' preferences between a safe incumbent and a risky opponent change in the aftermath of a negative aggregate shock. With reference-dependent preferences, economically disappointed voters become risk lovers, and are hence attracted by the more risky candidate. Survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are consistent with our assumptions and theoretical predictions on voters' behaviour.
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作者：Santavirta, Torsten; Stuhler, Jan
作者单位：Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; University of Helsinki; Uppsala University; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：Recent studies use names-first and surnames-to estimate intergenerational mobility in sources that lack direct family links. While generating novel evidence on intergenerational transmission processes, it remains unclear how different estimators compare and how reliable they are. This paper evaluates the most popular name-based methods, using newly digitised records from Finland and US census data. We illustrate that their interpretation depends on sampling properties of the data, such as the ...
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作者：Squires, Munir
作者单位：University of British Columbia
摘要：This paper documents strong pressure to share income faced by entrepreneurs in a developing country setting. This 'kinship tax' can distort productive decisions, including investment. A lab experiment with 361 Kenyan entrepreneurs reveals that a third of them face distortionary pressure to share income. This kinship tax is higher for men, and increasing in entrepreneurial ability. Using a pre-existing randomised cash transfer experiment, I find that only male entrepreneurs who do not face dist...
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作者：Ash, Elliott; Poyker, Michael
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin
摘要：Local exposure to conservative news causes judges to impose harsher criminal sentences. Our evidence comes from an instrumental variable analysis, where randomness in television channel positioning across localities induces exogenous variation in exposure to the Fox News Channel. These treatment data on news viewership are taken to outcome data on almost seven million criminal sentencing decisions in the United States for the years 2005-17. Higher Fox News viewership increases incarceration le...
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作者：Ahmed, Firoz; Hodler, Roland; Islam, Asad
作者单位：Monash University; Monash University; Technical University of Munich; Khulna University; University of St Gallen; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Monash University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：To study the effects of non-partisan information and get-out-the-vote campaigns on the partisan composition of the voting population in competitive authoritarian elections, we conducted a large-scale field experiment prior to the 2018 Bangladeshi general election. Our two treatments highlight that high turnout increases the winning party's legitimacy and that election outcomes matter for policy outcomes. Both treatments increase turnout (measured by ink marks) in government strongholds, but de...
