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作者：Giuntella, Osea; Lu, Yi; Wang, Tianyi
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; Tsinghua University; University of Toronto
摘要：We analyse the effects of exposure to industrial robots on labour market adjustments, exploring longitudinal household data from China. We find that a one-standard-deviation increase in robot exposure led to a decline in labour force participation (-1%), employment (-7%) and hourly earnings (-8%) of Chinese workers. At the same time, among those who kept working, robot exposure increased the number of hours worked by 8%. These effects were concentrated among the less educated and larger among ...
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作者：Balke, Nathan S.; Jin, Xin; Yucel, Mine
作者单位：Southern Methodist University; University of Aberdeen; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Southern Methodist University
摘要：We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a decrease in shale production costs and find that the resultant increase in shale production lowers oil prices by 24% in the short run and 48% once the shale oil transition is complete. Current oil price volatility is lowered by 8% to 23% depending on the horizon. We also find that OPEC core acts to keep its market share constant in the fac...
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作者：Williams, Cole
作者单位：University of Vienna
摘要：People are often more influenced by opinions similar to their own and even seek information from those with whom they expect to most agree-behaviours often attributed to irrational biases. In this paper, I argue that these behaviours can be understood within the context of rational social learning by accounting for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity in preferences or priors. Individuals display local learning by placing greater weight on opinions that are closer to their own. When indivi...
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作者：Gonzalez, Felipe; Miquel-Florensa, Josepa; Prem, Mounu; Straub, Stephane
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Universidad del Rosario; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; The World Bank
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作者：Albagli, Elias; Canales, Mario; Syverson, Chad; Tapia, Matias; Wlasiuk, Juan
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use administrative data for Chile to provide novel insights on the relationship between job transitions and productivity differentials and quantify how different groups contribute to aggregate reallocation. While on average workers move to more productive firms, almost half of transitions are 'down the productivity ladder'. Reallocation gains are mostly explained by a narrow subset of transitions: young, high-skilled workers generate the lion's share of aggregate productivity gains. Workers...
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作者：Carayol, Nicolas; Jackson, Matthew O.
作者单位：Universite de Bordeaux; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Stanford University; The Santa Fe Institute
摘要：Consumers, businesses and organisations rely on others' ratings of items when making choices. However, individual reviewers vary in their accuracy and some are biased-either systematically over- or under-rating items relative to others' tastes, or even deliberately distorting a rating. We describe how to process ratings by a group of reviewers over a set of items and evaluate the individual reviewers' accuracies and biases, in a way that yields unbiased and consistent estimates of the items' t...
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作者：Besley, Timothy; Dray, Sacha
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：This paper explores the link between trust in government, policymaking and compliance. It focuses on a specific channel whereby citizens who are convinced of the merits of a policy are more motivated to comply with it. This, in turn, reduces the government's cost of implementing this policy and may also increase the set of feasible interventions. As a result, state effectiveness is greater when citizens trust their government. The paper discusses alternative approaches to modelling the origins...
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作者：Alatas, Vivi; Chandrasekhar, Arun G.; Mobius, Markus; Olken, Benjamin A.; Paladines, Cindy
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Microsoft; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：Do celebrity endorsements matter? And if so, how can celebrities communicate effectively? We conduct a nationwide Twitter experiment in Indonesia promoting vaccination. Celebrity messages are 72% more likely to be passed on or liked than similar messages without a celebrity's imprimatur. In total, 66% of the celebrity effect comes from authorship, compared to passing on messages. Citing external medical sources decreases retweets by 27%. Phone surveys show that those randomly exposed to messag...
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作者：Cavounidis, Costas; Lang, Kevin; Weinstein, Russell
作者单位：University of Warwick; University of Warwick; Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：African Americans face shorter employment durations than similar Whites. We hypothesise that employers discriminate in acquiring or acting on ability-relevant information. In our model, monitoring Black, but not White, workers is self-sustaining. New Black hires were more likely fired by previous employers after monitoring. This reduces firms' beliefs about ability, incentivising discriminatory monitoring. We confirm our predictions that layoffs are initially higher for Black than non-Black wo...
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作者：Celik, Levent; Drugov, Mikhail
作者单位：University of Leicester; New Economic School; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We study verifiable disclosure by a seller when the product has multiple quality attributes. We identify an equilibrium in which, for some qualities, the seller discloses its score -the average of the qualities-and does not reveal anything else. This occurs when its score is sufficiently high or when the qualities are sufficiently similar and the score is not too low. Otherwise, the seller fully discloses. While full unravelling is still an equilibrium, it is dominated by this partial score di...
