Economic Shocks and Populism

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Panunzi, Fausto; Pavoni, Nicola; Tabellini, Guido
• 署名单位: Bocconi University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueae042
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 3047-3061
• 关键词: individual risk attitudes; prospect-theory; POLITICS; disappointment; ambiguity; DECISION

摘要

We study how voters' preferences between a safe incumbent and a risky opponent change in the aftermath of a negative aggregate shock. With reference-dependent preferences, economically disappointed voters become risk lovers, and are hence attracted by the more risky candidate. Survey data from the German Socio-Economic Panel are consistent with our assumptions and theoretical predictions on voters' behaviour.