The international transmission of local economic shocks through migrant networks

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Caballero, Maria Esther; Cadena, Brian C.; Kovak, Brian K.
• 署名单位: American University; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Carnegie Mellon University; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103832
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: international migration; Migrant networks; local labor markets; Mexico; United States

摘要

Using newly validated data on geographic migration networks, we study how labor demand shocks in the United States propagate across the border with Mexico. We show that the large exogenous decline in US employment brought about by the Great Recession affected demographic and economic outcomes in Mexican communities that were highly connected to the most affected markets in the US. In the Mexican locations with strong initial ties to the hardest hit US migrant destinations, return migration increased, emigration decreased, and remittance receipt declined. These changes significantly increased local employment and hours worked, but wages were unaffected. Investment in children's education also slowed in these communities. These findings document the effects in Mexico when potential migrants lose access to a strong US labor market, providing insight into the potential impacts of stricter US migration restrictions.