The aggregate effects of global and local supply chain disruptions: 2020-2022

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alessandria, George; Khan, Shafaat Yar; Khederlarian, Armen; Mix, Carter; Ruhl, Kim J.
• 署名单位: University of Rochester; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Rochester; University of Connecticut; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103788
• 发表日期: 2023
• 关键词: Supply chain; Shipping delays; Covid

摘要

We study the aggregate effects of supply-chain disruptions in the post-pandemic period in a heterogeneous -firm, general equilibrium model with input-output linkages and a rich set of supply chain frictions: uncertain shipping delays, fixed order costs, and storage costs. Firms optimally hold inventories that depend on the source of supply, domestic or imported. Increases in shipping times are contractionary, raise prices, and increase stockouts, particularly for goods intensive in delayed inputs. These effects are larger when inventories are already at low levels. We fit the model to the U.S. and global economies from 2020 to 2022 and estimate large aggregate effects of supply disruptions. Our model predicts that the boost in output from reducing delays will be smaller than the contraction from the waning effects of stimulus.(c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY -NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).