An import(ant) price of Brexit uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Graziano, Alejandro G.; Handley, Kyle; Limao, Nuno
• 署名单位: University of Nottingham; University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Georgetown University
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-1996
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2024.104012
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Brexit; uncertainty; prices; international trade

摘要

We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that a higher probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of existing products and reducing product variety from the E.U. We find evidence that the risk of higher import protection from the 2016 referendum increased current import price indices by 11 log points. This amounted to a 2 log point increase in manufactured goods prices and a 0.6 log point decrease in consumers' real income.