Pandemic Recessions and Contact Tracing
成果类型：
Article; Early Access
署名作者：
Melosi, Leonardo; Rottner, Matthias
署名单位：
Deutsche Bundesbank
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
ISSN/ISSBN：
1542-4766
DOI：
10.1093/jeea/jvad013
发表日期：
2023
关键词：
摘要：
We study contact tracing in a new macro-epidemiological model with asymptomatic transmission and limited testing capacity. Contact tracing is a testing strategy that aims to reconstruct the infection chain of newly symptomatic agents. This strategy may be unsuccessful because of an externality leading agents to expand their interactions at rates exceeding policymakers' ability to test all the traced contacts. Complementing contact tracing with timely deployed containment measures (e.g., social distancing or a tighter quarantine policy) corrects this externality and delivers outcomes that are remarkably similar to the benchmark case where tests are unlimited. We provide theoretical underpinnings to the risk of becoming infected in macro-epidemiological models. Our methodology to reconstruct infection chains is not affected by curse-of-dimensionality problems.
来源URL：