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作者：Born, Benjamin; Muller, Gernot J.; Pfeifer, Johannes
作者单位：Frankfurt School Finance & Management; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder
摘要：We investigate empirically how fiscal shocks-unanticipated and exogenous changes of government consumption growth-affect the sovereign default premium. For this purpose, we assemble a new data set for 38 emerging and developed economies. It contains approximately 3,000 observations for the sovereign default premium and three alternative measures of fiscal shocks. We condition our estimates on whether shocks are positive or negative and initial conditions in terms of fiscal stress. An increase ...
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作者：van den Berg, Gerard J.; Bonev, Petyo; Mammen, Enno
作者单位：University of Bristol; University of Groningen; University of St Gallen; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg
摘要：We develop an instrumental variable approach for identification of dynamic treatment effects on survival outcomes in the presence of dynamic selection, noncompliance, and right-censoring. The approach is nonparametric and does not require independence of observed and unobserved characteristics or separability assumptions. We propose estimation procedures and derive asymptotic properties. We apply our approach to evaluate a policy reform in which the pathway of unemployment benefits as a functi...
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作者：Been, Jim; Rohwedder, Susann; Hurd, Michael
作者单位：Leiden University - Excl LUMC; Leiden University; Tilburg University; RAND Corporation; RAND Corporation; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Becker's theory of home production suggests substitutability between consumption spending and home production. Using panel data with detailed information on spending and time use, we analyze households' ability to replace consumption spending by home-produced counterparts. Keeping wages fixed and changing lifetime resources by the shock to housing wealth during the Great Recession, we estimate an elasticity of substitution that is consistent with a life cycle Becker model. However, we estimate...
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作者：Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
作者单位：University of Warwick; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumpt...
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作者：O'Connell, Stephen D.
作者单位：Emory University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：A one-third quota rule for women in local political leadership seats in India increases the number of female candidates who later contest seats in state and national legislatures. This arises from the candidacy of beneficiaries who gained political experience due to the quotas and career politicians who continue contesting in longer-exposed areas. The policy accounts for a substantial portion of the increase in female candidates for high office since the mid-1990s. Women have a higher probabil...
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作者：Clark, Damon; Gill, David; Prowse, Victoria; Rush, Mark
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Irvine; National Bureau of Economic Research; Purdue University System; Purdue University; State University System of Florida; University of Florida
摘要：Will college students who set goals work harder and perform better? We report two field experiments that involved four thousand college students. One experiment asked treated students to set goals for performance in the course; the other asked treated students to set goals for a particular task (completing online practice exams). Task-based goals had robust positive effects on the level of task completion and marginally significant positive effects on course performance. Performance-based goal...
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作者：Tanaka, Mari
作者单位：Hitotsubashi University
摘要：This study investigates the impacts of exporting on working conditions in Myanmar by drawing on a new firm survey. For the identification, I use the rapid opening of Myanmar to trade alongside the firm's proximity to airports and products that have generated variations in access to foreign markets. The results show that exporting has significant positive impacts on working conditions regarding fire safety, health management, and freedom of negotiation; positive insignificant effects on wages; ...
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作者：Erten, Bilge; Keskin, Pinar
作者单位：Northeastern University; Wellesley College
摘要：We estimate the causal effects of education on the intergenerational transmission of violence against children by exploiting an extension of compulsory schooling in Turkey. Using a regression-discontinuity design, we find that the reform increased maternal education by one year, with stronger effects for women raised in rural areas. The increase in education among rural women led to a reduction in the perpetration of child physical abuse but only by mothers who were physically abused by their ...
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作者：Aidt, Toke; Asatryan, Zareh; Badalyan, Lusine; Heinemann, Friedrich
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); Justus Liebig University Giessen; Ruprecht Karls University Heidelberg
摘要：We report robust evidence of a new short-run monetary election cycle: the monthly growth rate of the money supply (M1) around elections is higher than in other months in a sample of low- and middle-income countries. We hypothesize this is related to systemic vote buying. Consistent with this, we find no cycle in authoritarian countries and countries with strong political institutions and a pronounced cycle in elections where international election monitors reported vote buying or in close elec...
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作者：Cattaneo, Matias D.; Crump, Richard K.; Farrell, Max H.; Schaumburg, Ernst
作者单位：Princeton University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; University of Chicago
摘要：Portfolio sorting is ubiquitous in the empirical finance literature, where it has been widely used to identify pricing anomalies. Despite its popularity, little attention has been paid to the statistical properties of the procedure. We develop a general framework for portfolio sorting by casting it as a nonparametric estimator. We present valid asymptotic inference methods and a valid mean square error expansion of the estimator leading to an optimal choice for the number of portfolios. In pra...
