How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Roth, Christopher; Wohlfart, Johannes
• 署名单位: University of Warwick; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00867
• 发表日期: 2020-10
• 页码: 731-748
• 关键词: inflation-expectations; experiences; probability; price; RISK

摘要

Using a representative online panel from the United States, we examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior. To exogenously vary respondents' expectations, we provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. Respondents update their macroeconomic outlook in response to the forecasts, extrapolate to expectations about their personal economic circumstances, and adjust their consumption plans and stock purchases. Extrapolation to expectations about personal unemployment is driven by individuals with higher exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with macroeconomic models of imperfect information in which people are inattentive but understand how the economy works.