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作者：Christelis, Dimitris; Georgarakos, Dimitris; Jappelli, Tullio; van Rooij, Maarten
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; Tilburg University; European Central Bank; University of Naples Federico II; University of Naples Federico II; European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV
摘要：Using survey data from a representative sample of Dutch households, we estimate the strength of precautionary saving by eliciting subjective expectations on future consumption. Expected consumption risk is positively correlated with self-employment and income risk and negatively with age. We insert these subjective expectations (rather than consumption realizations, as in the existing literature) in an Euler equation for consumption and estimate the degree of prudence by associating expected c...
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作者：Jaimovich, Nir; Siu, Henry E.
作者单位：University of Zurich; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of British Columbia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Job polarization refers to the shrinking share of employment in middle-skill, routine occupations experienced over the past 35 years. Jobless recoveries refers to the slow rebound in aggregate employment following recent recessions despite recoveries in aggregate output. We show how these two phenomena are related. First, essentially all employment loss in routine occupations occurs in economic downturns. Second, jobless recoveries in the aggregate can be accounted for by jobless recoveries in...
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作者：Paul, Pascal
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I find that compared...
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作者：Cravino, Javier; Haltenhof, Sam
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Aggregate price levels are positively related to GDP per capita across countries. We propose a mechanism that rationalizes this observation through sectoral differences in intermediate input shares. As productivity and income grow, so do wages relative to intermediate input prices, which increases the relative price of nontradables if tradable sectors use intermediate inputs more intensively. We show that sectoral differences in input intensities can account for about half of the observed elas...
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作者：Verdier, Valentin
作者单位：University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
摘要：Models with multiway fixed effects are frequently used to address selection on unobservables. The data used for estimating these models often contain few observations per value of either indexing variable (sparsely matched data). I show that this sparsity has important implications for inference and propose an asymptotically valid inference method based on subsetting. Sparsity also has important implications for point estimation when covariates or instrumental variables are sequentially exogen...
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作者：Cherchye, Laurens; De Rock, Bram; Surana, Khushboo; Vermeulen, Frederic
作者单位：KU Leuven; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; University of York - UK
摘要：We propose a novel nonparametric method to empirically identify economies of scale in multiperson household consumption. We assume consumption technologies that define the public and private nature of expenditures through Barten scales. Our method (solely) exploits preference information revealed by a cross-section of household observations while accounting for fully unobserved preference heterogeneity. An application to data drawn from the US Panel Study of Income Dynamics shows that the meth...
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作者：Brunner, Eric; Hyman, Joshua; Ju, Andrew
作者单位：University of Connecticut; Amherst College; Jacksonville University
摘要：School finance reforms caused some of the most dramatic increases in intergovernmental aid from states to local governments in U.S. history. We examine whether teachers' unions affected the fraction of reform-induced state aid that passed through to local spending and the allocation of these funds. Districts with strong teachers' unions increased spending nearly dollar-for-dollar with state aid and spent the funds primarily on teacher compensation. Districts with weak unions used aid primarily...
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作者：Bloom, Nicholas; Lemos, Renata; Sadun, Raffaella; Van Reenen, John
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; The World Bank; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Harvard University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We investigate the link between hospital performance and managerial education by collecting a large database of management practices and skills in hospitals across nine countries. We find that hospitals closer to universities offering both medical education and business education have lower mortality rates from acute myocardial infarction (heart attacks), better management practices, and more MBA-trained managers. This is true compared to the distance to universities that offer only business o...
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作者：Baker, Scott R.; McElroy, Tucker S.; Sheng, Xuguang S.
作者单位：Northwestern University; American University
摘要：By matching a large database of individual macroforecaster data with the universe of sizable natural disasters across 54 countries, we identify a set of new stylized facts: forecasters are persistently heterogeneous in how often they issue or revise a forecast; information rigidity declines significantly following large, unexpected natural disaster shocks; and disagreement decreases among inattentive agents while it might increase for attentive ones. We develop a learning model that captures t...
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作者：Liu, Li; Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim; Guo, Dongxian
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of London; University College London
摘要：This paper employs unique data on export transactions and corporate tax returns of UK multinational firms and finds that firms manipulate their transfer prices to shift profits to lower-taxed destinations. It shows that the 2009 tax reform in the United Kingdom, which changed the taxation of corporate profits from a worldwide to a territorial system, led to a substantial increase in transfer mispricing. It also provides evidence for a trade creation effect of transfer mispricing and estimates ...
