-
作者：Modestino, Alicia Sasser; Shoag, Daniel; Ballance, Joshua
作者单位：Northeastern University; Harvard University; University System of Ohio; Case Western Reserve University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Boston
摘要：Using a proprietary database of online job postings, we find that education and experience requirements rose during the Great Recession. These increases were larger in states and occupations that experienced greater increases in the supply of available workers. This finding is robust to controlling for local demand conditions and firmxjob-title fixed effects and using a natural experiment arising from troop withdrawals as an exogenous shock to labor supply. Our results imply that the increase ...
-
作者：Watson, Brett; Guettabi, Mouhcine; Reimer, Matthew
作者单位：University of Alaska System; University of Alaska Anchorage
摘要：We estimate the effects of universal cash transfers on crime from Alaska's Permanent Fund Dividend, an annual lump-sum payment to all Alaska residents. We find a 14% increase in substance-abuse incidents the day after the payment and a 10% increase over the following four weeks. This is partially offset by an 8% decrease in property crime, with no changes in violent crimes. On an annual basis, however, changes in criminal activity from the payment are small. Estimated costs comprise a very sma...
-
作者：Weiss, Colin
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA
摘要：I identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using US silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations. The Free Silver movement heightened fears the United States would abandon the gold standard and depreciate the dollar. Because Congress, rather than a central bank, set silver coinage policy, silver policy news was likely uncorrelated with economic shocks. Corporate bonds exposed to dollar devaluation returned a...
-
作者：Fulford, Scott L.; Schwartzman, Felipe
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We develop a method to use the one-time cross-sectional impact of a cleanly identified shock to identify its aggregate impact through the use of a factor model. We apply this methodology to evaluate the importance of fluctuations to the commitment to a currency peg for macroeconomic outcomes during the gold standard period in the United States. The presidential election in 1896 provides a cleanly identified positive shock to commitment to the gold standard. After the election, bank leverage in...
-
作者：Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.; Yoo, Hong Il
作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; Copenhagen Business School; Durham University
摘要：We evaluate the temporal stability of risk preferences using a remarkable data set that combines sociodemographic information from the Danish Civil Registry with information on risk attitudes from a longitudinal field experiment. Our econometric model accounts for endogenous sample selection and attrition processes that may confound inferences about temporal stability. Our experimental design builds in randomization on the incentives for participation that facilitates empirical identification ...
-
作者：Waseem, Mazhar
作者单位：University of Manchester
摘要：Using a series of Pakistani tax reforms and administrative records, I document that taxable income responses induced by to-zero tax cuts are orders of magnitude larger than ones induced by similar-sized other cuts. This finding is remarkably robust to alternative specifications and holds for both the self-employed and wage earners. I explore salience, selective enforcement, and discontinuous evasion costs as explanations of the observed behavior. I find that the data favor the last explanation...
-
作者：Prantl, Susanne; Spitz-Oener, Alexandra
作者单位：University of Cologne; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Humboldt University of Berlin
摘要：After the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, and the collapse of the German Democratic Republic, a sudden, unexpected, and massive influx of East German migrants hit the entire West German labor market. The context is well suited for investigating whether immigration influences natives' wages and how the effects depend on product and labor market conditions. We propose direct measures of potential migration with exogenous variation, compare migrants to natives with similar capabiliti...
-
作者：Bernardini, Marco; De Schryder, Selien; Peersman, Gert
作者单位：Ghent University
摘要：We use novel quarterly data of U.S. states to examine the dynamics of relative spending multipliers in the decade surrounding the Great Recession. While multipliers were around 1 in expansions, they reached values above 4 when a state was in a recession. Also a high (low) degree of household indebtedness augmented (lowered) a state's multiplier by 0.5 in expansions and 2 in recessions. We further document modest positive spillover effects across states and show that a mere redistribution of sp...
-
作者：Castillo, Juan Camilo; Mejia, Daniel; Restrepo, Pascual
作者单位：Stanford University; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); Boston University
摘要：This paper asks whether scarcity increases violence in markets that lack a centralized authority. We construct a model in which, by raising prices, scarcity fosters violence. Guided by our model, we examine this effect in the Mexican cocaine trade. At a monthly frequency, scarcity created by cocaine seizures in Colombia, Mexico's main cocaine supplier, increases violence in Mexico. The effects are larger in municipalities near the United States, with multiple cartels and with strong support fo...
-
作者：Card, David; DellaVigna, Stefano
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study editorial decisions using anonymized submissions matched to citations at four leading economics journals. We develop a benchmark model in which editors maximize the expected quality of accepted papers and citations are unbiased measures of quality. We then generalize the model to allow different quality thresholds, systematic gaps between citations and quality, and a direct impact of publication on citations. We find that referee recommendations are strong predictors of citations and ...
