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作者：Diecidue, Enrico; Levy, Haim; Levy, Moshe
作者单位：INSEAD Business School; Hebrew University of Jerusalem
摘要：The most commonly employed paradigms for decision making under risk are expected utility, prospect theory, and regret theory. We examine the simple heuristic of maximizing the probability of being ahead, which in some natural economic situations may be in contradiction to all three of the above fundamental paradigms. We test whether this heuristic, which we call probability dominance (PD), affects decisions under risk. We set up head-to-head situations where all preferences of a given class (e...
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作者：Wang, Zhi; Zhang, Qinghua; Zhou, Li-An
作者单位：Fudan University; Peking University
摘要：This paper develops a theoretical framework to study the critical role that politics play in shaping the spatial dimension of China's urbanization and the related welfare implications. Utilizing a large data set of residential land transactions matched with city leaders in 200 Chinese cities from 2000 through 2011, the empirical analysis finds that a 1 standard deviation increase in the career-incentive measure leads to 9 additional kilometers of outward expansion, a 23% increase relative to t...
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作者：Binder, Carola
作者单位：Haverford College
摘要：The Federal Reserve cut interest rates on March 3, 2020, in response to COVID-19. On March 5 and 6, I surveyed over 500 consumers about their concerns about COVID-19, awareness of the Fed's announcement, and macroeconomic expectations. Most consumers were concerned about effects of COVID-19 on the economy, their health, and their personal finances. About 38% were aware that the Fed had cut interest rates. Greater concern is associated with higher inflation expectations and more pessimistic une...
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作者：Coibion, Olivier; Fisman, Raymond; Handel, Benjamin R.; Hanna, Rema N.; Jacob, Brian A.; Kariv, Shachar; Khandelwal, Amit K.; Shi, Xiaoxia
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Boston University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Harvard University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Columbia University; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
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作者：Oliva, Paulina; Jack, B. Kelsey; Bell, Samuel; Mettetal, Elizabeth; Severen, Christopher
作者单位：University of Southern California; University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research; Oregon State University; ABT Associates; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Technology adoption often requires multiple stages of investment. As new information emerges, agents may abandon a technology that was profitable in expectation. We use a field experiment to vary the payoffs at two stages of investment in a new technology: a tree species that provides on-farm fertilizer benefits. Farmer decisions identify the information about profitability that arrives between the take-up and follow-through stages. Results show that this form of uncertainty increases take-up ...
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作者：Kreiner, Claus Thustrup; Reck, Daniel; Skov, Peer Ebbesen
作者单位：University of Copenhagen; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Auckland University of Technology
摘要：We estimate the impact of youth minimum wages on youth employment by exploiting a large discontinuity in Danish minimum wage rules at age 18, using monthly payroll records for the Danish population. The hourly wage jumps by 40% at the discontinuity. Employment falls by 33%, and total input of hours decreases by 45%, leaving the aggregate wage payment almost unchanged. We show theoretically how the discontinuity may be exploited to evaluate policy changes. The relevant elasticity for evaluating...
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作者：Khanna, Gaurav
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Affirmative action raises the likelihood of getting into college or obtaining a government job for minority social groups in India. I find that minority group students are incentivized to stay in school longer in response to changes in future prospects. To identify causal relationships, I leverage variation in group eligibility, school age cohorts, and state-level intensity of implementation in difference-in-differences and regression discontinuity designs. These estimators consistently show t...
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作者：Miller, Melinda C.
作者单位：Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University
摘要：This paper identifies an exogenous variation in post-Civil War policy to examine the effect of land reform on racial inequality. The Cherokee Nation, located in what is now Oklahoma, permitted slavery and joined the Confederacy in 1861. During postwar negotiations, the Cherokee Nation agreed to provide free land for its former slaves. Using linked data that follow former slaves in the Cherokee Nation from 1880 to 1900, I find that racial inequality was lower in the Cherokee Nation in both 1880...
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作者：Davis, Jonathan M. V.; Heller, Sara B.
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper reports the results of two randomized field experiments, each offering different populations of Chicago youth a supported summer job. The program consistently reduces violent-crime arrests, even after the summer, without improving employment, schooling, or other arrests; if anything, property crime increases over two to three years. Using a new machine learning method, we uncover heterogeneity in employment impacts that standard methods would miss, describe who benefits, and leverag...
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作者：Leung, Michael P.
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：We study nonparametric and regression estimators of treatment and spillover effects when interference is mediated by a network. Inference is nonstandard due to dependence induced by treatment spillovers and network-correlated effects. We derive restrictions on the network degree distribution under which the estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal and show they can be verified under a strategic model of network formation. We also construct consistent variance estimators robust to he...
