Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bernardini, Marco; De Schryder, Selien; Peersman, Gert
• 署名单位: Ghent University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00830
• 发表日期: 2020-05
• 页码: 304-322
• 关键词: fiscal multipliers; household debt; good times; shocks; POLICY; stimulus; consumption; austerity; responses

摘要

We use novel quarterly data of U.S. states to examine the dynamics of relative spending multipliers in the decade surrounding the Great Recession. While multipliers were around 1 in expansions, they reached values above 4 when a state was in a recession. Also a high (low) degree of household indebtedness augmented (lowered) a state's multiplier by 0.5 in expansions and 2 in recessions. We further document modest positive spillover effects across states and show that a mere redistribution of spending across states also had a significant influence on the aggregate U.S. economy due to cross-state heterogeneity of the effects.