Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Castillo, Juan Camilo; Mejia, Daniel; Restrepo, Pascual
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Universidad de los Andes (Colombia); Boston University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00801
• 发表日期: 2020-05
• 页码: 269-286
• 关键词: civil conflict; resource curse; price; shocks; demand; GROWTH; models; MARKET; crime

摘要

This paper asks whether scarcity increases violence in markets that lack a centralized authority. We construct a model in which, by raising prices, scarcity fosters violence. Guided by our model, we examine this effect in the Mexican cocaine trade. At a monthly frequency, scarcity created by cocaine seizures in Colombia, Mexico's main cocaine supplier, increases violence in Mexico. The effects are larger in municipalities near the United States, with multiple cartels and with strong support for PAN (the incumbent party). Between 2006 and 2009 the decline in cocaine supply from Colombia could account for 10% to 14% of the increase in violence in Mexico.