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作者：Dean, Andres; Fleitas, Sebastian; Zerpa, Mariana
作者单位：Universidad de la Republica, Uruguay; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Universidad de Chile; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We analyze dynamic incentives in pension systems created by the use of a small set of final years of earnings to compute benefits. Using social security records and household surveys from Uruguay, we show that self-employed workers and some employees of small firms respond to these incentives by increasing reported earnings in the benefit calculation window. We find evidence that suggests that these responses are explained by changes in earnings reporting and not in total earnings or labor sup...
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作者：Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Sims, Eric
作者单位：University of Pretoria; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper develops a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We find considerable cross-state heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles. We illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main contributors to the economic collapse caused by the COV...
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作者：Conlon, Christopher; Rao, Nirupama; Wang, Yinan
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We find that sin-good purchases are highly concentrated, with 10% of households paying more than 80% of taxes on alcohol and cigarettes. Total sin-tax burdens are poorly explained by demographics (including income) but are well explained by eight household clusters defined by purchasing patterns. The two most taxed clusters comprise 8% of households, pay 63% of sin taxes, and are older, less educated, and lower income. Taxes on sugary beverages broaden the tax base but add to the burdens of he...
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作者：Dursun, Bahadir; Eren, Ozkan; Nguyen, My
作者单位：Newcastle University - UK; University of California System; University of California Riverside; Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City (VNUHCM) System
摘要：This paper examines the effects of high school curriculum reforms on infant health by exploiting sharp and staggered changes across states in core course requirements for graduation. Our results suggest that curriculum reforms significantly reduced the incidence of low birthweight and prematurity for black mothers. For white mothers, the estimated effects are small and generally insignificant. We also explore the mechanisms for observed effects and provide evidence consistent with our explanat...
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作者：Chu, Yu-Wei Luke; Cuffe, Harold E.
作者单位：Victoria University Wellington
摘要：We estimate the effects of student loan access on educational attainment and labor market returns in New Zealand. We exploit the introduction of a national policy mandating a 50% pass rate for student loan renewals using a regression discontinuity design. Retaining loan access increases reenrollment for students around the threshold, and a majority eventually graduate with a bachelor's degree within seven years. We find that retaining student loan access leads to large labor market returns for...
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作者：Kucinskas, Simas; Peters, Florian S.
作者单位：Humboldt University of Berlin; University of Amsterdam
摘要：We develop a framework for measuring under- and overreaction in expectation formation. The basic insight is that under- and overreaction to new information is identified (up to sign) by the impulse response function of forecast errors. Our measurement procedure yields estimates of under- and overreaction to different shocks at various horizons. In an application to inflation expectations, we find that forecasters underreact to aggregate shocks but overreact to idiosyncratic shocks. We illustra...
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作者：Ferrara, Andreas; Fishback, Price
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); University of Pittsburgh; University of Arizona
摘要：This paper examines the individual and aggregate costs of ethnic discrimination. Studying Germans in the United States during World War I, an event that abruptly downgraded their previously high social standing, we show that anti-German sentiment was strongly associated with counties' casualties in the war, leading to subsequent outmigration of Germans. Such relocation to evade discrimination was costly for German workers. However, counties with larger outflows of Germans, who tended to be wel...
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作者：Lanier, Joshua; Miao, Bin; Quah, John K. -H.; Zhong, Songfa
作者单位：Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China; Renmin University of China; Johns Hopkins University; National University of Singapore
摘要：We run an experiment to elicit preferences over state-contingent timed payouts. We analyze the data using a new revealed preference method (building on Nishimura et al., 2017) that can test for consistency with utility functions that increase with a given preorder. We find that correlation neutrality, a property implied by discounted expected utility, is widely violated and there is, instead, strong evidence of intertemporal correlation averse behavior. Our results suggest that utility is not ...
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作者：Ishimaru, Shoya
作者单位：Hitotsubashi University
摘要：This study proposes an econometric framework to interpret and empirically decompose the difference between instrumental variables (IV) and ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates given by a linear regression model when the true causal effects of the treatment are nonlinear in treatment levels and heterogeneous across covariates. I show that the IV-OLS coefficient gap consists of three estimable components: the difference in weights on the covariates, the difference in weights on the treatment l...
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作者：Miller, Helen; Pope, Thomas; Smith, Kate
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; University of London; University College London
摘要：We use newly linked tax records to show that the large responses of UK company owner-managers to personal taxes are due to intertemporal income shifting and not to reductions in real business activity. Around half of this shifting is short-term and helps prevent volatile incomes being taxed more heavily under progressive personal taxes. The remainder reflects systemic profit retention over long periods to take advantage of lower tax rates, including preferential treatment of capital gains. We ...
