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作者：Almunia, Miguel; Hjort, Jonas; Knebelmann, Justine; Tian, Lin
作者单位：CUNEF Universidad; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; University College London; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); INSEAD Business School
摘要：Are firms sophisticated maximizers, or do they appear to make mistakes? Using transaction data from Ugandan value-added tax returns, we show that sellers and buyers report different amounts 79% of the time, despite invoices being easily cross-checked. Our estimates suggest that most firms are advantageous misreporters, but that 25% are disadvantageous misreporters who systematically overreport own sales minus purchases such that their tax liability increases. Similarly, many firms-especially d...
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作者：Borgschulte, Mark; Molitor, David; Zou, Eric Yongchen
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We study how air pollution impacts the U.S. labor market by analyzing the effects of drifting wildfire smoke. We link satellite-based smoke plume data with labor market outcomes to estimate that an additional day of smoke exposure reduces quarterly earnings by about 0.1%. Extensive margin responses, including employment reductions and labor force exits, explain 13% of the overall earnings losses. The implied welfare costs from lost earnings due to air pollution exposure is on par with standard...
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作者：Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Mertens, Elmar
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; Bocconi University; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：The COVID-19 pandemic has led to enormous data movements that strongly affect parameters and forecasts from standard Bayesian vector autoregressions (BVARs). To address these issues, we propose BVAR models with outlier-augmented stochastic volatility (SV) that combine transitory and persistent changes in volatility. The resulting density forecasts are much less sensitive to outliers in the data than standard BVARs. Predictive Bayes factors indicate that our outlier-augmented SV model provides ...
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作者：Siddique, Abu; Rahman, Tabassum; Pakrashi, Debayan; Islam, Asad; Ahmed, Firoz
作者单位：University of London; King's College London; University of Newcastle; Indian Institute of Technology System (IIT System); Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) - Kanpur; Monash University; Technical University of Munich; Khulna University
摘要：Delivering validated information to rural areas is a major challenge in low-income countries. In this paper, we study information provision to rural communities in the context of a global outbreak of an infectious disease-COVID-19. Two weeks after the initial lockdown in March 2020, we conducted a randomized experiment in rural Bangladesh and India to disseminate health information over the phone. We find that relative to information provided via SMS, phone calls can significantly improve peop...
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作者：Kumar, Saten; Wesselbaum, Dennis
作者单位：Auckland University of Technology; University of Otago
摘要：We use novel survey data to study firms' inventory contracts. We document facts about the usage of purchase and sale contracts. We find that firms purchase and sell inventory through three contractual arrangements: fixed price and quantity, fixed price only, and fixed quantity only. Those using fixed price and quantity hold the largest share of contracts. The average duration of purchase contracts is not very different from the average duration of sale contracts. We then find that the upward b...
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作者：Chirakijja, Janjala
作者单位：Monash University
摘要：I examine the economic consequences of prisons on local communities using two complementary approaches. The first uses prison openings during the 1990s across the United States, and the second exploits the results of the prison site-selection competitions in Texas. Prisons bring substantial and persistent gains in public employment. However, additional jobs at the prisons generate little spillover effects on private sector employment and fail to provide a major boost to local economic activity...
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作者：Fan, Qingliang; Wu, Yaqian
作者单位：Chinese University of Hong Kong; Xiamen University
摘要：Instrumental variables (IVs) and control variables are frequently used to assist researchers in investigating endogenous treatment effects. When used together, their identities are typically assumed to be known. However, in many practical situations, one is faced with a large and mixed set of covariates, some of which can serve as excluded IVs, some can serve as control variables, whereas others should be discarded from the model. It is often not possible to classify them based on economic the...
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作者：Aaronson, Daniel; Phelan, Brian J.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago; DePaul University
摘要：This paper uses minimum wage hikes to evaluate the susceptibility of low-wage employment to technological substitution. We find that automation is accelerating and supplanting a broader set of low-wage routine jobs since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Simultaneously, low-wage interpersonal jobs are increasing and offsetting routine job loss. However, interpersonal job growth does not appear to be enough, as it was prior to the financial crisis, to fully offset the negative effects of automati...
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作者：Norris, Samuel; Pecenco, Matthew; Weaver, Jeffrey
作者单位：University of British Columbia; Brown University; University of Southern California
摘要：This paper analyzes the effect of incarceration on mortality using administrative data from Ohio between 1992 and 2017. We first document that long-run survival is higher among the incarcerated than similar nonincarcerated defendants. Using event study designs centered around the time of release, we show why: mortality risk halves during the period of incarceration, with large reductions in murders, overdoses, and natural causes of death. However, incarceration does not increase postrelease mo...
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作者：Pedemonte, Mathieu
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：This paper shows how policy announcements can be used to manage expectations. Using regional variation in radio exposure, I evaluate the impact of FDR's 1935 Fireside Chat, in which he showcased the introduction of important social policies, establishing a new expansionary cycle of the New Deal. I document that cities with higher exposure to the announcement exhibited a significant increase in spending on durable goods. The estimated effect is consistent with changes in expectations in line wi...
