Tracking Weekly State-Level Economic Conditions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Sims, Eric
• 署名单位: University of Pretoria; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01171
• 发表日期: 2024-03
• 页码: 483-504
• 关键词: business cycles; coincident; indexes

摘要

This paper develops a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We find considerable cross-state heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles. We illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main contributors to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of the Paycheck Protection Program. We also propose an aggregate indicator that gauges the overall weakness of the U.S. economy.