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作者：Carpenter, Christopher; Dobkin, Carlos
作者单位：Vanderbilt University; University of California System; University of California Santa Cruz
摘要：We use variation from the minimum legal drinking age to estimate the causal effect of access to alcohol on crime. Using a census of arrests in California and a regression discontinuity design, we find that individuals just over age 21 are 5.9% more likely to be arrested than individuals just under 21. This increase is mostly due to assaults, alcohol-related offenses, and nuisance crimes. These results suggest that policies that restrict access to alcohol have the potential to substantially red...
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作者：Atalay, Kadir; Barrett, Garry F.
作者单位：University of Sydney
摘要：Governments around the world are reforming their social security systems in light of the challenges posed by population aging. We study the 1993 Australian Age Pension reform, which progressively increased the eligibility age for women from 60 to 65 years. We find economically significant responses to the reform. An increase in the eligibility age of one year induced a decline in the probability of retirement by 12 to 19 percentage points. In addition, the reform induced significant program su...
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作者：Chang, Yongsung; Hwang, Sunoong
作者单位：University of Rochester; Yonsei University; Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET)
摘要：We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shock...
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作者：Ashraf, Quamrul; Michalopoulos, Stelios
作者单位：Williams College; Brown University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This research examines the climatic origins of the diffusion of Neolithic agriculture across countries and archaeological sites. The theory suggests that a foraging society's history of climatic shocks shaped the timing of its adoption of farming. Specifically, as long as climatic disturbances did not lead to a collapse of the underlying resource base, the rate at which hunter-gatherers were climatically propelled to experiment with their habitats determined the accumulation of tacit knowledge...
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作者：de Janvry, Alain; McIntosh, Craig; Sadoulet, Elisabeth
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：The Fair Trade (FT) coffee initiative attempts to channel charity from consumers to poor producers via increased prices. We show that the rules of the FT system permit this rent to be eliminated due to free entry and costly excess certification of output. Using data from an association of coffee cooperatives in Central America, we verify that expected producer benefits are close to 0 when we take into account the output that is certified but not sold as FT. Our results illustrate how free entr...
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作者：Manova, Kalina; Wei, Shang-Jin; Zhang, Zhiwei
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We provide firm-level evidence that credit constraints restrict international trade and affect the pattern of multinational activity. We show that foreign affiliates and joint ventures in China have better export performance than private domestic firms in financially more vulnerable sectors. These results are stronger for destinations with higher trade costs and not driven by firm size or other sector characteristics. Our findings are consistent with multinational subsidiaries being less liqui...
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作者：Patton, Andrew J.; Sheppard, Kevin
作者单位：Duke University; University of Oxford
摘要：Using estimators of the variation of positive and negative returns (realized semivariances) and high-frequency data for the S&P 500 Index and 105 individual stocks, this paper sheds new light on the predictability of equity price volatility. We show that future volatility is more strongly related to the volatility of past negative returns than to that of positive returns and that the impact of a price jump on volatility depends on the sign of the jump, with negative (positive) jumps leading to...
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作者：Imberman, Scott A.; Lovenheim, Michael F.
作者单位：Michigan State University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Cornell University
摘要：We estimate the impact of incentive strength on achievement under a group-based teacher incentive pay program. The system provides variation in the share of students in a subject-grade that a teacher instructs, which proxies for incentive strength. We find that achievement on incentivized exams, but not nonincentivized exams, improves when incentives strengthen. For the incentivized exams, we find that effects fade out monotonically as a teacher's portion of the group increases to between 20 a...
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作者：Weisburd, Sarit
作者单位：Tel Aviv University
摘要：This paper capitalizes on a unique situation in Israel where car insurance coverage is often distributed as a benefit by employers. In our sample, employer-determined coverage resulted in an average $235 discount in accident costs. Using instrumental variable analysis on data provided by an insurance firm in Israel (2001-2008), we find that each $100 reduction in accident costs results in a 1.7 percentage point increase in the probability of an accident. At an average accident rate of 16.3 per...
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作者：Yakusheva, Olga; Fletcher, Jason
作者单位：University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：We examine peer effects in teen childbearing among close friends, using miscarriages as a natural experiment. We use 775 women from the core sample of Add Health who had a friend with a teen pregnancy. We find a sizable negative treatment effect: a close friend's teen birth is associated with a 6 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of own teen pregnancy and childbearing. There is evidence that this effect operates through a learning mechanism by changing beliefs regarding early childb...
