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作者：Giannone, Domenico; Lenza, Michele; Primiceri, Giorgio E.
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; European Central Bank; Northwestern University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Vector autoregressions (VARs) are flexible time series models that can capture complex dynamic interrelationships among macroeconomic variables. However, their dense parameterization leads to unstable inference and inaccurate out-of-sample forecasts, particularly for models with many variables. A solution to this problem is to use informative priors in order to shrink the richly parameterized unrestricted model toward a parsimonious nave benchmark, and thus reduce estimation uncertainty. This ...
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作者：Borjas, George J.; Doran, Kirk B.
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Notre Dame
摘要：Many economists believe knowledge production generates positive spillovers among knowledge producers. The available evidence, however, is mixed. We argue that spillovers can exist along three dimensions: idea, geographic, and collaboration space. To isolate the key channel through which knowledge spills over, we use a unique data set to examine the impact of a large post-1992 exodus of Soviet mathematicians on the output of the nonemigres. Although the data reveal strong competitive effects in...
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作者：Benigno, Pierpaolo; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Surico, Paolo
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of London; London Business School
摘要：This paper presents a new empirical regularity between the volatility of productivity growth and long-run unemployment for a given level of long-run productivity growth. A theoretical framework based on asymmetric real wage rigidities is shown to have the potential to rationalize this finding. The model tends to fit U.S. long-run unemployment better than a specification based on long-run productivity growth only, especially during the Great Moderation and the Great Recession.
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作者：Hainmueller, Jens; Hiscox, Michael J.; Sequeira, Sandra
作者单位：Stanford University; Harvard University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We provide new evidence on consumer demand for ethical products from experiments conducted in a U.S. grocery store chain. We find that sales of the two most popular coffees rose by almost 10% when they carried a Fair Trade label as compared to a generic placebo label. Demand for the higher-priced coffee remained steady when its price was raised by 8%, but demand for the lower-priced coffee was elastic: a 9% price increase led to a 30% decline in sales. While consumers attach value to ethical s...
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作者：Huber, Martin; Mellace, Giovanni
作者单位：University of Fribourg; University of Southern Denmark
摘要：We derive testable implications of instrument validity in just identified treatment effect models with endogeneity and consider several tests. The identifying assumptions of the local average treatment effect allow us to both point identify and bound the mean potential outcomes of the always takers under treatment and the never takers under nontreatment. The point-identified means must lie within their respective bounds, which provides us with four testable inequality moment constraints. Final...
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作者：Richards, Timothy J.; Hamilton, Stephen F.
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; California State University System; California Polytechnic State University San Luis Obispo
摘要：We examine variety pass-through effects that occur when multiproduct retailers adjust the length of their product lines in response to changes in wholesale prices. Studying variety pass-through is essential to understanding how wholesale price changes transmit into retail prices when variety is endogenous. Using data from the ready-to-eat breakfast cereal category, we find that retailers jointly adjust retail prices and the length of their product lines in response to changes in wholesale pric...
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作者：Fan, Haichao; Li, Yao Amber; Yeaple, Stephen R.
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; National Bureau of Economic Research; Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：This paper presents theory and evidence from disaggregated Chinese data that tariff reductions induce a country's producers to upgrade the quality of their exports. We first document stylized facts regarding the effect of trade liberalization on export prices. Next, we develop an analytic framework that relates a firm's choice of quality to its access to imported intermediates. In the model, a reduction in import tariffs induces a firm to increase export quality and raise its export price in i...
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作者：Kerr, William R.; Kominers, Scott Duke
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We model spatial clusters of similar firms. Our model highlights how agglomerative forces lead to localized, individual connections among firms, while interaction costs generate a defined distance over which attraction forces operate. Overlapping firm interactions yield agglomeration clusters that are much larger than the underlying agglomerative forces themselves. Empirically, we demonstrate that our model's assumptions are present in the structure of technology and labor flows within Silicon...
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作者：Cogley, Timothy; Sargent, Thomas J.
作者单位：New York University
摘要：We measure price-level uncertainty and instability in the United States over the period 1850 to 2012. Major outbreaks of price-level uncertainty and instability occur both before and after World War II, alternating with three price-level moderations: one near the turn of the twentieth century, another under Bretton Woods, and a third in the 1990s. There is no evidence that the price level was systematically more stable or less uncertain before or after World War II. Moderations sometimes invol...
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作者：Antman, Francisca; Duncan, Brian
作者单位：University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Boulder; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Denver; University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus; Children's Hospital Colorado
摘要：We link data on racial self-identification with changes in state-level affirmative action policies to ask whether racial self-identification responds to economic incentives. We find that after a state bans affirmative action, multiracial individuals who face an incentive to identify under affirmative action are about 30% less likely to identify with their minority group. In contrast, multiracial individuals who face a disincentive to identify under affirmative action are roughly 20% more likel...
