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作者：Cozzi, Guido; Impullitti, Giammario
作者单位：University of St Gallen; University of Nottingham
摘要：In the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. labor market experienced a remarkable polarization along with fast technological catch-up as Europe and Japan improved their global innovation performance. Is foreign technological convergence an important source of wage polarization? To answer this question, we build a multicountry Schumpeterian growth model with heterogeneous workers, endogenous skill formation, and occupational choice. We show that convergence produces polarization through business stealing ...
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作者：Imbens, Guido W.; Kolesar, Michal
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University
摘要：We study the properties of heteroskedasticity-robust confidence intervals for regression parameters. We show that confidence intervals based on a degrees-of-freedom correction suggested by Bell and McCaffrey (2002) are a natural extension of a principled approach to the Behrens-Fisher problem. We suggest a further improvement for the case with clustering. We show that these standard errors can lead to substantial improvements in coverage rates even for samples with fifty or more clusters.We re...
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作者：Kraay, Aart; Murrell, Peter
作者单位：The World Bank; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Corruption estimates rely largely on self-reports of affected individuals and officials. Yet survey respondents are often reticent to tell the truth about sensitive subjects, leading to downward biases in surveybased corruption estimates. This paper develops a method to estimate the prevalence of reticent behavior and reticence-adjusted rates of corruption using survey responses to sensitive questions. A statistical model captures how respondents answer a combination of conventional and random...
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作者：Sun, Stephen Teng; Yannelis, Constantine
作者单位：Peking University; Stanford University
摘要：We use staggered banking deregulation across states in the United States to examine the impact of the resulting increased credit supply on college enrollment from the 1970s to the early 1990s. Our research design produces estimates that are not confounded by wealth effects due to changes in income or housing wealth. We find that lifting banking restrictions raises college enrollment by about 2.6 percentage points (4.9%). We rule out alternative interpretations by examining results for differen...
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作者：Masten, Matthew A.; Torgovitsky, Alexander
作者单位：Duke University; Northwestern University
摘要：We study identification and estimation of the average partial effect in an instrumental variable correlated random coefficients model with continuously distributed endogenous regressors. This model allows treatment effects to be correlated with the level of treatment. The main result shows that the average partial effect is identified by averaging coefficients obtained from a collection of ordinary linear regressions that condition on different realizations of a control function. These control...
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作者：Hashmi, Aamir Rafique; Van Biesebroeck, Johannes
作者单位：National University of Singapore; KU Leuven
摘要：We specify and estimate a dynamic game to study the equilibrium relationship between market structure and innovation in the automobile industry. The quality of each firm's product for the average consumer, the key state variable, is modeled as stochastically increasing in innovation, the dynamic control, which is proxied by patent applications. Equilibrium innovation is a function of market structure, the vector of quality levels of all active firms, and the cost of R&D. Our main findings are ...
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作者：Ibragimov, Rustam; Mueller, Ulrich K.
作者单位：Imperial College London; Princeton University
摘要：Suppose estimating a model on each of a small number of potentially heterogeneous clusters yields approximately independent, unbiased, and Gaussian parameter estimators. We make two contributions in this setup. First, we show how to compare a scalar parameter of interest between treatment and control units using a two-sample t-statistic, extending previous results for the one-sample t-statistic. Second, we develop a test for the appropriate level of clustering; it tests the null hypothesis tha...
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作者：Doleac, Jennifer L.; Sanders, Nicholas J.
作者单位：University of Virginia; Cornell University
摘要：We exploit daylight saving time (DST) as an exogenous shock to daylight, using both the discontinuous nature of the policy and the 2007 extension of DST, to consider the impact of light on criminal activity. Regression discontinuity estimates show a 7% decrease in robberies following the shift to DST. As expected, effects are largest during the hours directly affected by the shift in daylight. We discuss our findings within the context of criminal decision making and labor supply, and estimate...
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作者：Sadun, Raffaella
作者单位：National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：Regulations curbing the entry of large retail stores have been introduced in many countries to protect independent retailers. Analyzing a planning reform launched in the United Kingdom in the 1990s, I show that independent retailers were actually harmed by the creation of entry barriers against large stores. This is because the entry barriers created the incentive for large retail chains to invest in smaller and more centrally located formats, which competed more directly with independents and...
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作者：Burke, Marshall; Dykema, John; Lobell, David B.; Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker
作者单位：Stanford University; Harvard University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; New York University
摘要：Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We reexamine seven well-cited studies and show that accounting for climate uncertainty leads to a much larger range of projected climate impacts and a greater likelihood of worst-case outcomes, an importa...
