ASYMMETRIC PHASE SHIFTS IN US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION CYCLES

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chang, Yongsung; Hwang, Sunoong
• 署名单位: University of Rochester; Yonsei University; Korea Institute for Industrial Economics & Trade (KIET)
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00436
• 发表日期: 2015-03
• 页码: 116-133
• 关键词: dating business cycles; markov-switching model; aggregate shocks; UNITED-STATES; ECONOMY; OIL; POLICY

摘要

We identify cyclical turning points for 74 U.S. manufacturing industries and uncover new empirical regularities: (a) industries tend to comove between expansion and contraction phases over the business cycle; (b) clusters of industry turning points are highly asymmetric between peaks and troughs: troughs are much more concentrated and sharper than peaks; (c) the temporal pattern of phase shifts across industries supports the spillovers through input-output linkages; and (d) macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated changes in monetary policy, government spending, oil prices, and financial conditions, are significant drivers of industrial phase shifts.