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作者：Gonzalez-Navarro, Marco; Quintana-Domeque, Climent
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Oxford
摘要：We provide the first experimental estimation of the effects of the supply of publicly financed urban infrastructure on property values. Using random allocation of first-time street asphalting of residential streets located in peripheral neighborhoods in Mexico, we show that within two years of the intervention, households are able to transform their increased property wealth into significantly larger rates of vehicle ownership, household appliances, and home improvements. Increased consumption...
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作者：Knittel, Christopher R.; Miller, Douglas L.; Sanders, Nicholas J.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Davis; Cornell University
摘要：We investigate the effects of automobile congestion on ambient air pollution and local infant mortality rates using data from California spanning 2002 to 2007. Constructing instrumental variables (IV) using the relationship of traffic, weather conditions, and pollutants, we show that particulate matter, even at modern levels, has large marginal effects on weekly infant mortality rates, especially for premature or low birthweight infants. We also find suggestive evidence of large effects for ca...
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作者：Clark, Andrew E.; D'Ambrosio, Conchita; Ghislandi, Simone
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); University of Luxembourg; Bocconi University
摘要：We consider the link between poverty and subjective wellbeing and focus in particular on potential adaptation to poverty. We use panel data on almost 54,000 individuals living in Germany from 1985 to 2012 to show, first, that life satisfaction falls with both the incidence and intensity of contemporaneous poverty. We then reveal that there is little evidence of adaptation within a poverty spell: poverty starts bad and stays bad in terms of subjective well-being. We cannot identify any cause of...
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作者：Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, Andre; Scharth, Marcel
作者单位：Tinbergen Institute; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Aarhus University; CREATES; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; University of New South Wales Sydney
摘要：We verify whether parameter-driven and observation-driven classes of dynamic models can outperform each other in predicting time-varying parameters. We consider existing and new dynamic models for counts and durations, but also for volatility, intensity, and dependence parameters. In an extended Monte Carlo study, we present evidence that observation-driven models based on the score of the predictive likelihood function have similar predictive accuracy compared to their correctly specified par...
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作者：Anderson, Nathan B.; Dokko, Jane K.
摘要：We compare the twelve-month default probability among subprime borrowers differing only in the number of months before their first lump-sum property tax payment, after which time they may be exposed to reduced liquidity. We show that borrowers with an earlier property tax billwithin three months of originationhave 2% to 6% higher first-year default rates than borrowers facing their first property tax bill ten to twelve months after origination. Lump-sum property tax payments appear to produce ...
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作者：Elliott, Graham; Ghanem, Dalia; Krueger, Fabian
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of California System; University of California Davis; Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies
摘要：We consider constructing probability forecasts from a parametric binary choice model under a large family of loss functions (scoring rules). Scoring rules are weighted averages over the utilities that heterogeneous decision makers derive from a publicly announced forecast (Schervish, 1989). Using analytical and numerical examples, we illustrate howdifferent scoring rules yield asymptotically identical results if the model is correctly specified. Under misspecification, the choice of scoring ru...
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作者：Funk, Patricia
作者单位：Universita della Svizzera Italiana; Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：Opinion polls and other surveys are used to capture public sentiments on a variety of issues. If citizens are unwilling to reveal certain policy preferences to others, surveys may fail to characterize population preferences accurately. The innovation of this paper is to use unique data that allow one to measure biases in surveyed preferences for a broad range of public policies. I combine data on 184 referenda held in Switzerland between 1987 and 2007 with postballot surveys that ask how the c...
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作者：Horrace, William C.; Rohlin, Shawn M.
作者单位：Syracuse University; University System of Ohio; Kent State University; Kent State University Salem; Kent State University Kent
摘要：Grogger and Ridgeway (2006) use the daylight saving time shift to develop a police racial profiling test that is based on differences in driver race visibility and (hence) the race distribution of traffic stops across daylight and darkness. However, urban environments may be well lit at night, eroding the power of their test. We refine their test using streetlight location data in Syracuse, New York, and the results change in the direction of finding profiling of black drivers. Our preferred s...
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作者：Waldinger, Fabian
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：I examine the role of human and physical capital for the creation of scientific knowledge. I address the endogeneity of human and physical capital with two exogenous shocks: the dismissal of scientists in Nazi Germany and World War II bombings. A 10% shock to human capital reduced output by 0.2 SD in the short run, and the reduction persisted in the long run. A 10% shock to physical capital reduced output by 0.05 SD in the short run, and the reduction did not persist. The dismissal of star sci...
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作者：Cashin, David; Unayama, Takashi
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Hitotsubashi University
摘要：We estimate the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption (IES) using a preannounced increase in Japan's consumption tax rate. Because this tax is highly comprehensive, the rate increase was announced prior to its implementation, and because other factors that affect the real interest rate were constant, the tax rate increase presents an ideal natural experiment to estimate the IES. A Japanese monthly household survey is exploited to accurately categorize nondurables, and our emp...
