MEASURING PRICE-LEVEL UNCERTAINTY AND INSTABILITY IN THE UNITED STATES, 1850-2012

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cogley, Timothy; Sargent, Thomas J.
• 署名单位: New York University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00498
• 发表日期: 2015-10
• 页码: 827-838
• 关键词: inflation; persistence; EVOLUTION

摘要

We measure price-level uncertainty and instability in the United States over the period 1850 to 2012. Major outbreaks of price-level uncertainty and instability occur both before and after World War II, alternating with three price-level moderations: one near the turn of the twentieth century, another under Bretton Woods, and a third in the 1990s. There is no evidence that the price level was systematically more stable or less uncertain before or after World War II. Moderations sometimes involved links to gold, but the experience of the 1990s proves that a well-managed fiat regime can achieve the same outcome.