Longer-Run Economic Consequences of Pandemics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jorda, Oscar; Singh, Sanjay R.; Taylor, Alan M.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of California System; University of California Davis; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01042
• 发表日期: 2022-01
• 页码: 166-175
• 关键词: natural rate; plague; england; IMPACT

摘要

What are the medium- to long-term effects of pandemics? Do they differ from other economic disasters? We study major pandemics using rates of return on assets stretching back to the fourteenth century. Significant macroeconomic after-effects of pandemics persist for decades, with rates of return substantially depressed. The responses are in stark contrast to what happens after wars. Our findings also accord with wage and output responses, using more limited data, and are consistent with the neoclassical growth model: capital is destroyed in wars but not in pandemics; pandemics instead may induce more labor scarcity or more precautionary savings, or both.