Relationship Stickiness, International Trade, and Economic Uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Martin, Julien; Mejean, Isabelle; Parenti, Mathieu
• 署名单位: University of Quebec; University of Quebec Montreal; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po); Paris School of Economics; INRAE; Universite Libre de Bruxelles; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01396
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: Policy uncertainty; specificity; CONTRACTS; networks; MARKET; FIRMS; CHINA; FDI

摘要

We study how stickiness in business relationships influences the trade impact of aggregate uncertainty. To begin, we construct a product-level index of relationship stickiness using firm-to-firm relationship duration data. We then demonstrate how relationship stickiness shapes trade dynamics in response to uncertainty shocks. We find that episodes of uncertainty lead to a decline in the overall establishment of new business relationships, with the impact varying depending on the level of stickiness. In markets characterized by high stickiness, uncertainty shocks primarily impede investments in new firm-to-firm relationships. In contrast, for non-sticky products, the adjustment to uncertainty shocks mainly manifests as the disruption of existing relationships.