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作者：Holly, Sean; Petrella, Ivan
作者单位：University of Cambridge; University of London; Birkbeck University London
摘要：This paper argues that factor demand linkages can be important for the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a contemporaneous technology shock to all manufacturing sectors implies a positive response in both output and hours at the aggregate level. Otherwise there is a negative correlation, as in much of the exi...
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作者：de Janvry, Alain; Finan, Frederico; Sadoulet, Elisabeth
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper analyzes how electoral incentives affected the performance of a major decentralized conditional cash transfer program intended on reducing school dropout rates among children of poor households in Brazil. We show that while this federal program successfully reduced school dropout by 8 percentage points, the program's impact was 36% larger in municipalities governed by mayors who faced reelection possibilities compared to those with lame-duck mayors. First-term mayors with good progr...
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作者：Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jiri
作者单位：University of Hamburg; European Central Bank
摘要：We investigate determinants of disagreement-cross-sectional dispersion of individual forecasts-about key economic indicators. Disagreement about economic activity, in particular about GDP growth, has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about prices: inflation and interest rates. Disagreement about GDP growth intensifies strongly during recessions. Disagreement about prices rises with their level, declines under independent central banks, and both its level and its sensitivity to macroeconomic...
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作者：Lindqvist, Erik
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：This paper studies the relationship between height and leadership. Using data from a representative sample of Swedish men, I document that tall men are significantly more likely to attain managerial positions. An increase in height by 10 centimeters (3.94 inches) is associated with a 2.2 percentage point increase in the probability of holding a managerial position. Selection into managerial positions explains about 15% of the unconditional height-wage premium. However, about half of the height...
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作者：Brueckner, Markus; Ciccone, Antonio; Tesei, Andrea
作者单位：National University of Singapore; Barcelona School of Economics
摘要：We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil-price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP grow...
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作者：Moral-Benito, Enrique
摘要：Model uncertainty hampers consensus on the key determinants of economic growth. Some recent cross-country cross-sectional analyses have employed Bayesian model averaging to tackle the issue of model uncertainty. This paper extends that approach to panel data models with country-specific fixed effects in order to simultaneously address model uncertainty and endogeneity issues. The empirical findings suggest that in a panel setting, the most robust growth determinants are the price of investment...
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作者：Bikker, Jacob A.; Shaffer, Sherrill; Spierdijk, Laura
作者单位：European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; Utrecht University; Utrecht University; University of Wyoming; Australian National University; University of Groningen
摘要：The Panzar-Rosse test has been widely applied to assess competitive conduct, often in specifications controlling for firm scale or using a price equation. We show that neither a price equation nor a scaled revenue function yields a valid measure for competitive conduct. Moreover, even an unscaled revenue function generally requires additional information about costs and market equilibrium to infer the degree of competition. Our theoretical findings are confirmed by an empirical analysis of com...
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作者：Bogan, Vicki L.
作者单位：Cornell University
摘要：The capital structure of lending institutions has become an increasingly prominent issue in the world of finance. Contemporaneously, microfinance institutions (MFIs) have risen to the forefront as invaluable lending institutions in the development process. Since capital constraints have hindered the expansion of microfinance programs and microfinance organizations have had various degrees of sustainability, the question of how best to finance these organizations is a key issue. This paper expl...
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作者：Corsetti, Giancarlo; Meier, Andre; Mueller, Gernot J.
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); International Monetary Fund; University of Bonn
摘要：The short-run effects of fiscal policy depend not only on current tax and spending choices, but also on expectations about future policy adjustment. While general equilibrium models typically restrict medium-term adjustment to taxation, we highlight the importance of government spending dynamics. First, we provide time series evidence for the United States suggesting that an exogenous increase in government spending prompts a rise in public debt, followed over time by a reduction in spending b...
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作者：Taylor, John B.; Wieland, Volker
作者单位：Stanford University; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：In this paper, we investigate the comparative properties of empirically estimated monetary models of the U.S. economy using a new database of models designed for such investigations. We focus on three representative models due to Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005), Smets and Wouters (2007), and Taylor (1993a). Although these models differ in terms of structure, estimation method, sample period, and data vintage, we find surprisingly similar economic impacts of unanticipated changes in th...
