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作者：Morley, James; Piger, Jeremy
作者单位：University of New South Wales Sydney; University of Oregon
摘要：The business cycle is a fundamental yet elusive concept in macroeconomics. In this paper, we consider the problem of measuring the business cycle. First, we argue for the output-gap view that the business cycle corresponds to transitory deviations in economic activity away from a permanent, or trend, level. Then we investigate the extent to which a general model-based approach to estimating trend and cycle for the U.S. economy leads to measures of the business cycle that reflect models versus ...
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作者：Campante, Filipe R.; Chor, Davin
作者单位：Harvard University; Singapore Management University
摘要：We investigate how the link between individual schooling and political participation is affected by country characteristics. Using individual survey data, we find that political participation is more responsive to schooling in land-abundant countries and less responsive in human capital-abundant countries, even while controlling for country political institutions and cultural attitudes. We find related evidence that political participation is less responsive to schooling in countries with a hi...
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作者：Fryer, Roland G., Jr.; Kahn, Lisa; Levitt, Steven D.; Spenkuch, Jorg L.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago
摘要：Since 1970, the fraction of mixed-race black-white births has increased nearly ninefold. This paper describes basic facts about the behaviors and outcomes of black-white mixed-race individuals. Unsurprisingly, on a host of background and achievement characteristics, as well as adult outcomes, mixed-race individuals fall in between whites and blacks. When it comes to engaging in risky and antisocial adolescent behavior, however, mixed-race adolescents are stark outliers compared to both blacks ...
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作者：Lampe, Ryan
作者单位：DePaul University
摘要：This paper investigates whether patent applicants strategically withhold citations to material prior art. Citation data suggest that applicants withhold between 21% and 33% of relevant citations. Variation in withholdings is explained by patent portfolio size and indicators of patent value. These data also highlight important differences across technology classes. In particular, firms are significantly less likely to withhold a citation when applying for chemical and drug patents. Robustness c...
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作者：Bucciol, Alessandro; Miniaci, Raffaele
作者单位：University of Verona; University of Amsterdam; University of Brescia
摘要：We derive the distribution of a proxy for the risk tolerance in a representative sample of U. S. households. Our measure is deduced from the willingness to bear risk as indicated by the variance of returns of each household's observed portfolio. The estimates, obtained assuming constraints on portfolio composition, show substantial heterogeneity across households. We find that risk tolerance falls with age and increases with wealth. Other variables, such as education, gender, race, and househo...
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作者：Gibson, John; McKenzie, David; Stillman, Steven
作者单位：University of Waikato; The World Bank
摘要：We use a migration lottery program to overcome the double-selectivity problems posed by migration. We compare a wide range of outcomes for the remaining household members of Tongan emigrants with those of members of similar households who were unsuccessful in the lottery, with the policy rules determining which household members can move. Multiple hypothesis testing procedures are used to examine robustness. The overall impact on households left behind is largely negative in terms of resource ...
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作者：Angrist, Joshua D.; Kuersteiner, Guido M.
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Georgetown University
摘要：We develop semiparametric tests for conditional independence in time series models of causal effects. Our approach is motivated by empirical studies of monetary policy effects and is semiparametric in the sense that we model the process determining the distribution of treatment-the policy propensity score-but leave the model for outcomes unspecified. A conceptual innovation is that we adapt the cross-sectional potential outcomes framework to a time series setting. We also develop root-T consis...
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作者：Cadot, Olivier; Carrere, Celine; Strauss-Kahn, Vanessa
作者单位：The World Bank; Universite Clermont Auvergne (UCA); heSam Universite; ESCP Business School
摘要：The paper explores the evolution of export diversification patterns along the economic development path. Using a large database with 156 countries over 19 years at the HS6 level of disaggregation (4,991 product lines), we look for action at the intensive and extensive margins. We find a hump-shaped pattern of export diversification similar to what Imbs and Wacziarg (2003) found for production. Diversification and subsequent reconcentration take place mostly along the extensive margin. This hum...
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作者：Greiner, D. James; Rubin, Donald B.
作者单位：Harvard University
摘要：Despite their ubiquity, observational studies to infer the causal effect of a so-called immutable characteristic, such as race or sex, have struggled for coherence, given the unavailability of a manipulation analogous to a treatment in a randomized experiment and the danger of posttreatment bias. We demonstrate that a shift in focus from actual traits to perceptions of them can address both of these issues while facilitating articulation of other critical concepts, particularly the timing of t...
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作者：Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel; Guerkaynak, Refet S.; Swanson, Eric T.
作者单位：European Central Bank; Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：We study the convergence of European bond markets and the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area from 1993 to 2008, using high-frequency bond yield data for France, Germany, Italy, and Spain; some smaller euro-area countries; and a control group comprising the United Kingdom, Denmark, and Sweden. We find that Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) led to substantial convergence in euro-area sovereign bond markets in terms of interest rate levels, unconditional daily fluctuations, and ...
