FACTOR DEMAND LINKAGES, TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS, AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Holly, Sean; Petrella, Ivan
• 署名单位: University of Cambridge; University of London; Birkbeck University London
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• DOI: 10.1162/REST_a_00253
• 发表日期: 2012-11
• 页码: 948-963
• 关键词: aggregate fluctuations; models; EMPLOYMENT; complementarities; reallocation; improvements; comovement; GROWTH

摘要

This paper argues that factor demand linkages can be important for the transmission of both sectoral and aggregate shocks. We show this using a panel of highly disaggregated manufacturing sectors together with sectoral structural VARs. When sectoral interactions are explicitly accounted for, a contemporaneous technology shock to all manufacturing sectors implies a positive response in both output and hours at the aggregate level. Otherwise there is a negative correlation, as in much of the existing literature. Furthermore, we find that technology shocks are important drivers of the business cycle.