OIL PRICE SHOCKS, INCOME, AND DEMOCRACY

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brueckner, Markus; Ciccone, Antonio; Tesei, Andrea
• 署名单位: National University of Singapore; Barcelona School of Economics
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6535
• 发表日期: 2012-05
• 页码: 389-399
• 关键词: instrumental variables; GROWTH; curse

摘要

We examine the effect of oil price fluctuations on democratic institutions over the 1960-2007 period. We also exploit the very persistent response of income to oil price fluctuations to study the effect of persistent (oil-price-driven) income shocks on democracy. Our results indicate that countries with greater net oil exports over GDP see improvements in democratic institutions following upturns in international oil prices. We estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth due to a positive oil price shock increases the Polity democracy score by around 0.2 percentage points on impact and by around 2 percentage points in the long run. The effect on the probability of a democratic transition is around 0.4 percentage points.