Journal of Public Economics

最新文章

• Economic uncertainty before and during the COVID-19 pandemic AI翻译
  作者：Altig, Dave; Baker, Scott; Barrero, Jose Maria; Bloom, Nicholas; Bunn, Philip; Chen, Scarlet; Davis, Steven J.; Leather, Julia; Meyer, Brent; Mihaylov, Emil; Mizen, Paul; Parker, Nicholas; Renault, Thomas; Smietanka, Pawel; Thwaites, Gregory
  作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Northwestern University; Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico; Stanford University; Bank of England; University of Chicago; University of Nottingham; heSam Universite; Universite Pantheon-Sorbonne
  摘要：We consider several economic uncertainty indicators for the US and UK before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: implied stock market volatility, newspaper-based policy uncertainty, Twitter chatter about economic uncertainty, subjective uncertainty about business growth, forecaster disagreement about future GDP growth, and a model-based measure of macro uncertainty. Four results emerge. First, all indicators show huge uncertainty jumps in reaction to the pandemic and its economic fallout. Indeed...
• Human mobility restrictions and the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China AI翻译
  作者：Fang, Hanming; Wang, Long; Yang, Yang
  作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; ShanghaiTech University; Chinese University of Hong Kong; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：We quantify the causal impact of human mobility restrictions, particularly the lockdown ofWuhan on January 23, 2020, on the containment and delay of the spread of the Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Weemploy differencein-differences (DID) estimations to disentangle the lockdown effect on human mobility reductions from other confounding effects including panic effect, virus effect, and the Spring Festival effect. The lockdown ofWuhan reduced inflows toWuhan by 76.98%, outflows fromWuhan by 56.31...
• The macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies AI翻译
  作者：Auray, Stephane; Eyquem, Aurelien
  作者单位：Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information (ENSAI); Universite du Littoral-Cote-d'Opale; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 2; Institut Universitaire de France
  摘要：A tractable incomplete-market model with endogenous unemployment risk, sticky prices, real wage rigidity and a fiscal side is calibrated to Euro Area countries and used to analyze the macroeconomic effects of lockdown policies. Modeling them as a shock to the extensive margin of labor adjustment - a rise in separations - produces large and persistent negative effects on output, unemployment and welfare, raises precautionary savings and lowers inflation, in line with early evidence about inflat...
• Educational inequality and public policy preferences: Evidence from representative survey experiments AI翻译
  作者：Lergetporer, Philipp; Werner, Katharina; Woessmann, Ludger
  作者单位：Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich; University of Munich; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics
  摘要：To study how information about educational inequality affects public concerns and policy preferences, we devise survey experiments in representative samples of the German population. Providing information about the extent of educational inequality strongly increases concerns about educational inequality. It also affects support for equity-oriented education policies (which have high baseline support), although effects are quantitatively small on average. However, instrumental-variable estimate...
• Opinion dynamics via search engines (and other algorithmic gatekeepers) AI翻译
  作者：Germano, Fabrizio; Sobbrio, Francesco
  作者单位：Pompeu Fabra University; Luiss Guido Carli University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
  摘要：Ranking algorithms are the information gatekeepers of the Internet era. We develop a stylized model to study the interplay between a ranking algorithm and individual clicking behavior. We consider a search engine that uses an algorithm based on popularity and on personalization. The analysis shows the presence of a feedback effect, whereby individuals clicking on websites indirectly provide information about their private signals to successive searchers through the popularity-ranking algorithm...
• Do peers influence occupational preferences? Evidence from randomly-assigned peer groups at West Point AI翻译
  作者：Jones, Todd R.; Kofoed, Michael S.
  作者单位：University System of Georgia; Georgia State University; United States Military Academy; United States Department of Defense; United States Army
  摘要：There is substantial variation across occupations in outcomes. such as earnings, job satisfaction, and health, yet little is known about how occupational preferences are shaped and evolve. This paper assesses a channel that may influence occupational preferences-peer effects-by exploiting unique institutional features and a natural experiment at West Point to document the way students' (i.e., cadets') occupational preferences evolve, and to test for peer effects. After graduation, cadets must ...
• Tax-motivated transfer mispricing in South Africa: Direct evidence using transaction data AI翻译
  作者：Wier, Ludvig
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
  摘要：This paper provides the first direct systematic evidence of profit shifting through transfer mispricing in a developing country. Using South African transaction-level customs data, I directly test for transfer price deviations from arm's-length pricing. I find that multinational firms in South Africa manipulate transfer prices in order to shift taxable profits to low-tax countries. The estimated tax loss relating to imported goods alone is 0.5% of corporate tax payments. My estimates do not su...
• Facts, alternative facts, and fact checking in times of post-truth politics AI翻译
  作者：Barrera, Oscar; Guriev, Sergei; Henry, Emeric; Zhurayskaya, Ekaterina
  作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Institut d'Etudes Politiques Paris (Sciences Po)
  摘要：How effective is fact checking in countervailing alternative facts, i.e., misleading statements by politicians? In a randomized online experiment during the 2017 French presidential election campaign, we subjected subgroups of 2480 French voters to alternative facts by the extreme-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, and/or corresponding facts about the European refugee crisis from official sources. We find that: (i) alternative facts are highly persuasive; (ii) fact checking improves factual knowl...
• Are changes of organizational form costly? Income shifting and business entry responses to taxes AI翻译
  作者：Tazhitdinova, Alisa
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara
  摘要：Drawing on administrative panel data covering the full population of business owners in the UK,1 study the effects of differential tax liabilities across organizational forms on business entry and on income shifting. I find that a 10% increase in savings from incorporation leads to a 1.7% increase in the number of new business owners. However, higher entrepreneurial entry is offset by income shifting - increasing the hazard rate of incorporation of the existing self-employed by up to 2.3% for ...
• Do Americans want to tax wealth? Evidence from online surveys AI翻译
  作者：Fisman, Raymond; Gladstone, Keith; Kuziemko, Ilyana; Naidu, Suresh
  作者单位：Boston University; Princeton University; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：A vast theoretical literature in public finance has studied the desirability of capital taxation. This discussion largely ignores the political feasibility of taxing wealth. We provide, to our knowledge, the first investigation of individuals' preferences over jointly taxing income and wealth. We provide subjects with a set of hypothetical individuals' incomes and wealth and elicit subjects' preferred (absolute) tax bill for each individual. Our method allows us to unobtrusively map both incom...