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作者：Braun, Robin; Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Saha, Tuli
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bank of England
摘要：We introduce the UK Monetary Policy Event-Study Database (UKMPD), a new and rich dataset of high-frequency monetary policy surprises for the United Kingdom. Intraday surprises are computed around the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee's announcements, as well as around the press conference that follows the publication of the quarterly Monetary Policy Report. The dataset also includes factors that disentangle the different dimensions of UK monetary policy. We use the data to estimate t...
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作者：Yang, Fan
作者单位：University of Nottingham Ningbo China; McGill University
摘要：This paper studies the effects of replacing the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) with a Universal Basic Income (UBI) in an environment where EITC take-up is incomplete. In contrast, UBI ensures full participation by design, extending benefits to households who do not take up the EITC, at the cost of higher fiscal expenditures. I study this trade-off between expanded coverage and fiscal cost using a life-cycle model with an endogenous EITC participation decision that replicates the observed elig...
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作者：Chiavari, Andrea
作者单位：University of Oxford
摘要：This paper studies how rising returns to scale contributed to declining business dynamism and increasing markups and expenditures devoted to customer acquisition in the U.S. economy. It introduces a firm dynamics model with heterogeneous markups and customer accumulation based on directed search, in which larger firms gain a competitive edge from higher returns to scale. This makes markets less contestable for new firms and leads to the rise of superstar firms. The model quantitatively account...
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作者：Roulleau-Pasdeloup, Jordan
作者单位：National University of Singapore
摘要：There is no known explicit global closed-form solution for the standard income fluctuation problem with a borrowing constraint and where wealth accumulates with a constant interest rate r. Assuming continuous time, I derive an explicit global closed-form solution when r = 0 using the Lambert W function. For the case r > 0, I derive an explicit global closed-form approximation that is valid for r close to 0. I then use these to derive explicit expressions for the marginal propensity to consume ...
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作者：Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Diez-Catalan, Luis; Villanueva, Ernesto
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); Deutsche Bundesbank; Banco de Espana
摘要：We analyze the impact of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) due to collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) on wage and employment dynamics during two major recessions in Spain: the low-inflation recession of 2009, which included both short-and long-term CBAs, and the high-inflation recession of 1993, characterized by short-term CBAs. By exploiting variation in the timing of CBA renewals, we find that CBAs signed before recessions result in 1pp higher negotiated wage growth than those signed...
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作者：Chang, Minsu; Lee, Hanbaek
作者单位：Seoul National University (SNU); University of Cambridge
摘要：This paper investigates the fiscal multiplier of infrastructure investment using an estimated heterogeneous-firm general equilibrium model. We theoretically and quantitatively show that the firm-level non-rivalry in infrastructure usage drives a significant discrepancy in the estimated input elasticities between the firm and state levels. Moreover, it microfounds the increasing returns to scale assumption in a representative-agent framework (Baxter and King, 1993). The quantitative findings in...
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作者：Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Gazzani, Andrea
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：How do shocks to the supply of natural gas affect output and inflation? To answer this question, we construct an instrument using daily news on the European gas market and employ it within a VAR model of the euro area. We find that negative supply shocks have sizable stagflationary effects and accounted for nearly 50 percent of the increase in core prices observed between 2021 and 2023. The propagation to core prices appears to be larger compared to oil shocks, suggesting that the structural d...
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作者：Pedroni, Marcelo; Singh, Swapnil; Stoltenberg, Christian A.
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Bank of Lithuania; Kaunas University of Technology
摘要：We show that households' private information on future income can be identified from the correlation between consumption growth and future income growth conditional on current income growth. Employing PSID data, we find that this conditional correlation is positive and significant. We use this evidence to structurally estimate a standard incomplete markets model and discover that US households possess enough advance information to reduce their income forecast errors by 15%. This significantly ...
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作者：Birinci, Serdar
摘要：This is a comment on How to Fund Unemployment Insurance with Informality and False Claims: Evidence from Senegal, by Ndiaye, Herkenhoff, Ciss & eacute;, Dell'Acqua, and Mbaye.
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作者：Blundell, Richard; French, Eric
作者单位：University of London; University College London; University of Cambridge
摘要：This discussion comments on Singles, Couples, Time-Averaging, and Taxation by Hans Holter, Lars Ljungqvist, Thomas Sargent, and Serhiy Stepanchuk. This work represents an exciting new agenda, combining recent findings in the dynamic micro labor supply and retirement literature with key features of the macro environment by including general equilibrium feedback and a government budget constraint. We point to some areas where the specification could be improved but these do not detract from the ...
