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作者：Heise, Sebastian; Pearce, Jeremy; Weber, Jacob P.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：Good measures of labor market tightness are essential to predict wage inflation and to calibrate monetary policy. This paper highlights the importance of two measures of labor market tightness in determining wage growth: the quits rate and vacancies per effective searcher (V/ES)-where searchers include both employed and non-employed job seekers. Among a broad set of indicators of labor market tightness, we find that these two measures are independently the most strongly correlated with wage in...
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作者：Kuhn, Moritz; Manovskii, Iourii; Qiu, Xincheng
作者单位：University of Mannheim; University of Pennsylvania; Peking University
摘要：Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities across these countries in the spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, and vacancy filling, job finding, and separation rates. The novel facts on the geography of vacancies and vacancy filling are instrumental in guiding and disciplining the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find...
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作者：Luo, Yulei; Nie, Jun; Wang, Xiaowen; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Hong Kong; Wuhan University; Liaoning University; University of Virginia
摘要：In this paper we propose a production-cost smoothing model with Knightian uncertainty and ambiguity aversion to study the joint behavior of production, inventories, and sales. Our model can explain ten facts that previous studies find difficult to account for simultaneously including the high volatility of production relative to sales, the low ratio of inventory-investment volatility to sales volatility, the positive correlation between sales and inventory investment, and the negative correlat...
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作者：Tanaka, Hiroatsu
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：I study the dynamics of default-free bond yields and term premia using a novel equilibrium term structure model with a New-Keynesian core and imperfect information about productivity. Imperfect information can justify a shock to signals about productivity that does not lead to actual changes in productivity, which can be interpreted as a demand shock. When incorporated in a DSGE term structure model with a standard productivity shock, this demand shock generates term premia that are on average...
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作者：Bord, Vitaly M.; Kovacs, Agnes; Moran, Patrick
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of London; King's College London; University of Manchester; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：In the United States, credit card companies frequently use machine learning algorithms to proactively raise credit limits for borrowers. In contrast, an increasing number of countries have begun to prohibit credit limit increases initiated by banks rather than consumers. In this paper, we exploit detailed regulatory micro data to examine the extent to which bank-initiated credit limit increases are directed towards individuals with revolving debt. We then develop a model that captures the cost...
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作者：Barreto, Cesar; Merkl, Christian
作者单位：Organisation for Economic Co-operation & Development (OECD); University of Erlangen Nuremberg
摘要：Our paper documents the importance of ex ante worker heterogeneity for labor market dynamics and for the composition of the unemployment pool over the business cycle. In recessions, unemployment pool shifts toward workers with higher wages in their previous jobs. Based administrative data for Germany and two-way worker and firm wage fixed effects, we show that this shift is mainly connected to worker heterogeneity, not to firm heterogeneity. We calibrate search and matching model with ex ante ...
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作者：Alessandri, Piergiorgio; Jorda, Oscar; Venditti, Fabrizio
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; Federal Reserve System - USA; University of California System; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; University of California Davis; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：Financial markets play an important role in generating monetary policy transmission asymmetries in the U.S. Credit spreads only adjust to unexpected increases in interest rates, causing output and prices to respond more to a monetary contraction than to a monetary loosening. At a one year horizon, the 'financial multiplier' of monetary policy - defined as the ratio between the cumulative responses of employment and credit spreads - is zero for a monetary loosening,-2 for a monetary contraction...
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作者：Fogli, Alessandra
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
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作者：Amador, Manuel; Phelan, Christopher
作者单位：University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper presents a model of central bank reputation where inflation is a noisy function of central bank actions. In the model, a central bank can be hawkish, with a relatively high penalty for taking inflationary actions, or dovish, with a relatively low penalty. The central bank's type varies according to a Markov process, and its reputation is the Bayesian posterior of households that it is a hawkish type. We show analytically that no Markov pooling equilibria exist: hawkish and dovish ce...
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作者：Minoiu, Camelia; Zarutskie, Rebecca; Zlate, Andrei
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Dallas; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We study the effects of the Main Street Lending Program (MSLP)-a Federal Reserve emergency program which sought to support bank lending to small-and medium-sized businesses by purchasing 95% of eligible loans from banks-on the provision of bank credit to non-financial firms. We show the MSLP increased banks' willingness to lend outside the program by serving as an implicit backstop. Participating banks were more likely to grant new loans, increase loan volumes, and reduce loan spreads, with st...
