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作者：Mukoyama, Toshihiko; Takayama, Naoki; Tanaka, Satoshi
作者单位：Georgetown University; Hitotsubashi University; University of Queensland
摘要：This study analyzes how labor market frictions interact with firms' decisions to reallocate workers across different occupations during labor market polarization. We compare the patterns of occupational reallocation within and across firms in the US and Germany in recent years. We find within-firm reallocation contributes significantly to the decline in employment in routine occupations in Germany, but much less so in the US. We construct a general equilibrium model of firm dynamics and find t...
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作者：Poschke, Markus
作者单位：McGill University; Universite de Montreal; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Poor countries have low wage employment and high self-employment. This paper shows that they also have high unemployment relative to wage employment, and that self-employment increases with this ratio. To understand the sources of these patterns, I build a search and matching model with choice between job search and self-employment and with learning about matches, and calibrate it to match all transition rates between wage employment, unemployment and self-employment as well as separation haza...
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作者：Basso, Henrique S.; Rachedi, Omar
作者单位：Banco de Espana; Universitat Ramon Llull; Escuela Superior de Administracion y Direccion de Empresas (ESADE)
摘要：Leveraging adoption U.S. metropolitan areas, automation reduces the sensitivity of inflation to unemployment. To rationalize this finding, we build a New Keynesian model with search frictions in the labor market where robot adoption flattens the Phillips curve. The key channel is the option value of automation: the threat of automating labor tasks alters effective workers' bargaining power, muting the wage sensitivity unemployment. We validate the relevance of this channel in the data by showi...
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作者：Mendoza, Enrique G.; Quadrini, Vincenzo
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; ; University of Southern California;
摘要：The protracted fall in the real interest rate of the 1991-2020 period indicates that global demand for financial assets grew much faster than supply. We propose a two-region model of private capital flows to show that two drivers of global prosperity played a key role in this phenomenon: faster growth in emerging economies (EMEs) and financial development in advanced (AEs) and emerging economies. The model also predicts that asset portfolios became riskier and made countries more vulnerable to...
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作者：Lippi, Francesco; Moracci, Elia
作者单位：Luiss Guido Carli University;
摘要：We use a large granular dataset to analyze the households' choice between cash and card payments. Empirically, both the size of the transaction and the amount of cash on hand appear as significant covariates of the payment choice. We unveil a novel interaction between these two variables: the critical size for a card purchase depends on the amount of cash on hand. We present a tractable model of payment choices, featuring non-universal acceptance of cards by merchants, and a random expenditure...
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作者：Wang, Qiaochu
摘要：This paper documents the rise and adoption of AI-powered pricing across the U.S. economy and studies its implications for firm outcomes and monetary policy transmission. Using Lightcast job-posting text to infer firm-level adoption, the authors establish stylized empirical facts about (1) how AI-pricing adoption rates change over time, (2) the determinants of which firms adopt AI pricing, (3) how AI pricing is associated with firm performance, and (4) how AI pricing impacts firms' responses to...
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作者：Bianchi, Javier; Coulibaly, Louphou
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; University of Cambridge
摘要：Central banks with flexible exchange rate regimes are often reluctant to let their currency float, a phenomenon known as fear of floating. We develop a framework in which a floating exchange rate may exacerbate vulnerability to self-fulfilling financial crises rather than provide the intended insulation against external shocks. A commitment to a crawling peg-where the currency can fluctuate within a predetermined band-can help mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling crises. In contrast to the Mun...
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作者：De Graeve, Ferre; Westermark, Andreas
作者单位：KU Leuven; Sveriges Riksbank
摘要：Macroeconomic research often relies on structural vector autoregressions, (S)VARs, to uncover empirical regularities. Critics argue the method goes awry due to lag truncation: short lag lengths imply a poor approximation to important data-generating processes (e.g. DSGE models). Empirically, short lag length is deemed necessary as increased parametrization induces excessive uncertainty. The paper shows that this argument is incomplete. Longer lag length simultaneously reduces misspecification,...
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作者：Miranda-Pinto, Jorge; Murphy, Daniel; Walsh, Kieran James; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; University of Queensland; University of Virginia; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; University of Virginia
摘要：We introduce a new quantitative model of household expenditure shocks to rationalize the common anecdote of a low-income and low-liquidity household that uses additional income to save (repay debt) rather than consume. Our model also rationalizes key features of the joint dynamics of household-level consumption and income, including our finding that consumption is volatile yet disconnected from income, especially for households experiencing episodes of high consumption. The key feature of our ...
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作者：Gabrovski, Miroslav; Kospentaris, Ioannis; Lebeau, Lucie
作者单位：University of Hawaii System; University of Hawaii Manoa; Athens University of Economics & Business; Wellesley College
摘要：An increasing share of corporate loans, a critical source of firm credit, is sold off banks' balance sheets and actively traded in a secondary over-the-counter market. We develop a microfounded equilibrium search-theoretic model with labor, credit, and financial markets to study the impact of this secondary loan market on the real economy. Our analysis highlights a policy-relevant trade-off: the market reduces the steady state level of unemployment by 0.21pp, but it also amplifies unemployment...
